Global| Mar 04 2021U.S. Factory Orders & Shipments Rise Again in January
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
• Gain in factory orders driven by durable goods. • Shipments continue to strengthen. • Order backlogs & inventories edge higher. Manufacturing activity is strengthening. Factory orders rose 2.6% (2.8% y/y) in January after improving [...]
• Gain in factory orders driven by durable goods.
• Shipments continue to strengthen.
• Order backlogs & inventories edge higher.
Manufacturing activity is strengthening. Factory orders rose 2.6% (2.8% y/y) in January after improving 1.6% in December, revised from 1.1%. A 1.1% January increase had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey.
Durable goods orders rose 3.4% (6.3% y/y), which was unrevised from last week's report. Transportation sector orders strengthened 7.7% (2.0% y/y) as nondefense aircraft orders surged. Electrical equipment & appliance orders gained 4.0% (8.8% y/y) but machinery orders eased 0.6% (+5.9% y/y). The full report on January durable goods activity is available here.
Nondurable goods orders, which equal shipments, surged 1.9% (-0.6% y/y) after rising 2.0% during December and 1.2% in November. Shipments from petroleum refineries surged 7.6% (-14.5% y/y) in both January and December as oil prices continued to rise. Among other nondurable goods sectors, basic chemical shipments rose 0.9% (5.2% y/y) while paper product shipments strengthened 1.9% (5.3% y/y). Textile mill shipments improved 2.3% (1.7% y/y) but apparel shipments declined 3.4% (-0.9% y/y).
Shipments of durable goods improved 1.9% in January (6.2% y/y) following a 2.1% December improvement. Transportation product shipments rose 0.8% (4.2% y/y) as nondefense aircraft shipments jumped 20.1% (-8.6% y/y) after strengthening 42.7%. Shipments of computers & electronic products improved 1.0% (9.1% y/y).
Inventories of manufactured products edged 0.1% higher in January (-0.4% y/y). Durable goods inventories fell 0.3% (+0.3% y/y) while nondurable goods inventories strengthened 0.7% (-1.5% y/y). The value of petroleum refinery inventories surged for the third straight month, up 7.0% (-12.9% y/y) while textile mill inventories eased 0.6% (-4.5% y/y). Food product inventories rose 0.3% (0.6% y/y) and basic chemical inventories edged 0.1% higher (2.4% y/y).
The value of unfilled orders improved 0.1% in January (-6.3% y/y) but had been falling since mid-2018. Unfilled orders in the transportation sector eased 0.1% (-11.1% y/y). Electrical equipment & appliances backlogs rose 1.2% (10.2% y/y) but commercial aircraft backlogs eased 0.5% (-16.3% y/y).
The factory sector figures and West Texas intermediate oil prices are available in Haver's USECON database.
The Fed's latest Beige Book covering regional economic conditions is available here.
| Factory Sector (% chg) - NAICS Classification | Jan | Dec | Nov | Jan Y/Y | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New Orders | 2.6 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 2.8 | -6.7 | -0.1 | 6.8 |
| Shipments | 1.9 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 2.7 | -5.7 | 1.0 | 6.6 |
| Unfilled Orders | 0.1 | -0.2 | -0.0 | -6.3 | -6.4 | -1.8 | 3.9 |
| Inventories | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.8 | -0.4 | -0.6 | 2.8 | 3.6 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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