Global| Dec 06 2012U.S. Factory Orders Rise Moderately And Inventories Tick Higher
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Orders in the factory sector are still rising, but the slower trend rate of growth mirrors other indications of slowing activity in manufacturing. Factory sector orders in October rose 0.8% following a 4.5% September gain. The [...]
Orders in the factory sector are still rising, but the slower trend rate of growth mirrors other indications of slowing activity in manufacturing. Factory sector orders in October rose 0.8% following a 4.5% September gain. The September as well as the August figures were whipsawed by aircraft bookings. Expectations were for no change in October bookings according to Bloomberg. Durable goods orders increased 0.5% (2.8% y/y), revised from last week's report of no change. Nondurable goods orders (which equal shipments) jumped another 1.1% (3.2% y/y). That reflected a 2.0% rise (10.6% y/y) in petroleum shipments with higher prices. Shipments of apparel surged 3.7% (4.7% y/y), textile products shipments gained 0.8% (4.3% y/y) while basic chemicals shipments ticked 0.1% (-1.5% y/y) higher. Unfilled orders gained 0.3% (4.5% y/y) as the orders increase outpaced the shipments rise.
Inventories in the factory sector ticked 0.1% higher during October. The 3.1% y/y rate of inventory accumulation was down from its 13.6% rate one year ago. Over the last 12 months, inventories in the transportation sector rose 10.5% but that was a deceleration from last year's 15.0% rise. Excluding transportation, inventories slipped 0.1% (1.5% y/y) in October, the annual rise contrasts with 8.0% growth in both of the last two years.
The factory sector figures are available in Haver's USECON database. The expectation figure is in AS1REPNA.
| Factory Sector- NAICS Classification | Oct | Sep | Aug | Y/Y | 2011 | 2010 | 2009 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New Orders | 0.8 | 4.5 | -5.1 | 3.0 | 11.8 | 18.0 | -23.1 |
| Shipments | 0.4 | 0.7 | -0.2 | 3.3 | 11.8 | 11.2 | -18.8 |
| Inventories | 0.1 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 3.1 | 9.4 | 8.8 | -6.8 |
| Unfilled Orders | 0.3 | 0.1 | -1.7 | 4.5 | 10.3 | 9.6 | -19.5 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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