Global| Mar 19 2019U.S. Factory Orders Inch Higher; Shipments Fall Again
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Manufacturers' orders gained 0.1% (4.2% y/y) during January, the same as in December which was unrevised. The 0.3% rise had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Orders for durable goods improved 0.3% (8.4% y/y), [...]
Manufacturers' orders gained 0.1% (4.2% y/y) during January, the same as in December which was unrevised. The 0.3% rise had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Orders for durable goods improved 0.3% (8.4% y/y), unrevised from the advance report. More orders for transportation equipment led the advance with a 1.2% gain (16.3% y/y), powered by a 15.6% surge (26.1% y/y) in nondefense aircraft & parts. Motor vehicle & parts orders gained 0.4% (7.9% y/y). Factory orders excluding transportation eased 0.2% (+1.8% y/y). Electrical equipment bookings increased 1.4% (6.1% y/y), but orders for computers & electronic products declined 0.9% (+6.2% y/y). Also weakening were primary metals orders which fell 2.0% (+8.1% y/y).
Overall shipments from the factory sector fell 0.4% (+3.0% y/y). Shipments of durable goods declined 0.5% (+6.0% y/y), led by a 1.3% decline (+9.5% y/y) in transportation shipments. Total shipments excluding transportation eased 0.2% (+1.7% y/y), off for the third straight month. Machinery sector shipments gained 0.8% (4.0% y/y) and computer & electronic product shipments improved 0.1% (5.3% y/y). Nondurable goods shipments, which equal orders, declined 0.2% (+0.1% y/y), off for the third consecutive month. Petroleum refinery shipments eased 0.4% (-7.4% y/y). Paper product shipments gained 0.5% (0.8% y/y) but apparel shipments fell 0.3% (+3.0% y/y).
Unfilled orders in the factory sector gained 0.1% (4.3% y/y) following three consecutive months of decline. Transportation sector backlogs rose 0.1% (4.1% y/y), and excluding transportation, unfilled orders also rose 0.1% (4.3% y/y) after two 0.2% gains. Computer & electronic equipment backlogs rose 0.1% (3.9% y/y) but unfilled orders for electrical equipment & appliances declined 0.3% (+1.1% y/y). Backlogs of furniture & related products rose 0.7% (3.2% y/y). Unfilled machinery sector orders eased 0.1% (+2.2% y/y), down for the third straight month.
Inventories in the factory sector rose 0.5% (3.7% y/y), the largest increase in four months. The rise was driven by a 0.9% gain (3.6% /y) in transportation equipment inventories. Excluding transportation, inventories increased 0.4% (3.7% y/y). Durable goods inventories rose 0.5% (4.9% y/y) as machinery inventories rose 0.5% (5.9% y/y). Electrical equipment & appliance inventories rose 0.8% (8.6% y/y), but computer & electronic products inventories fell 0.2% (+0.7% y/y). Nondurable goods inventories strengthened 0.7% (1.8% y/y) as the value of petroleum refinery inventories surged 3.9% (-7.4% y/y) with higher prices. Apparel inventories fell 0.5% (+1.2% y/y), down for the third straight month, but paper product inventories rose 0.9% (3.4% y/y).
The factory sector figures are available in Haver's USECON database.
| Factory Sector (% chg) - NAICS Classification | Jan | Dec | Nov | Jan Y/Y | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New Orders | 0.1 | 0.1 | -0.5 | 4.2 | 7.2 | 5.7 | -2.9 |
| Shipments | -0.4 | -0.2 | -0.5 | 3.0 | 6.8 | 5.0 | -3.2 |
| Unfilled Orders | 0.1 | -0.1 | -0.2 | 4.3 | 3.8 | 2.0 | -1.2 |
| Inventories | 0.5 | 0.1 | -0.1 | 3.7 | 3.5 | 4.5 | -0.7 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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