Global| Dec 05 2011U.S. Factory Orders Fall Again but Shipments Improve
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Manufacturing orders fell 0.4% during October following a 0.1% September slip, revised from the 0.3% rise reported last month. The latest decline roughly matched Consensus expectations. For durable goods only, orders fell 0.5% and [...]
Manufacturing orders fell 0.4% during October following a 0.1% September slip, revised from the 0.3% rise reported last month. The latest decline roughly matched Consensus expectations. For durable goods only, orders fell 0.5% and were roughly unchanged from the advance report of a 0.7% decline. Nondurable goods orders, which equal shipments, fell 0.3% (13.2% y/y). The change was held back by a 0.9% decline (+29.5% y/y) in petroleum shipments and a 0.3% slip (+8.7% y/y) in basic chemicals. Offsetting these were a 2.4% rise (15.1% y/y) in apparel shipments and a 0.4% increase (11.4% y/y) in food products.
Unfilled orders rose a lessened 0.2% (7.1% y/y), held back by 0.2% declines in both electrical equipment (+17.0% y/y) and transportation equipment (+3.3% y/y). Machinery backlogs rose 1.3% (29.2% y/y) and primary metals increased 0.9% (11.4% y/y).
Inventories in the factory sector increased a firm 0.9% (11.5% y/y) during October though y/y momentum has slowed. Durable goods inventories rose 0.4% (11.7% y/y). Nondurables inventories jumped 1.7% (11.3% y/y) as oil refineries inventories surged 6.3% (31.1% y/y. Apparel inventories also were strong and jumped 4.1% (20.5% y/y) while basic chemicals rose 0.5% (9.0% y/y).
The factory sector figures are available in Haver's USECON database. The expectation figure is in AS1REPNA.
The Federal Reserve's "Duel Mandate": The Evolution of an Idea from the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond is available here.
| Factory Sector - NAICS Classification (%) | Oct | Sep | Aug | Y/Y | 2010 | 2009 | 2008 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Orders | -0.4 | -0.1 | 0.1 | 10.8 | 12.9 | -21.7 | 0.5 |
| Shipments | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 11.6 | 8.6 | -18.5 | 2.3 |
| Inventories | 0.9 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 11.5 | 8.7 | -6.8 | -2.1 |
| Unfilled Orders | 0.2 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 7.1 | 3.9 | -15.2 | 4.3 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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