Global| Mar 06 2013U.S. Factory Orders Decline As Inventories Gain
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Orders to all manufacturers fell 2.0% (+0.3% y/y) following a 1.3% December rise, revised from 1.8%. The decline roughly matched expectations. A 4.9% shortfall (-0.8% y/y) in January durable goods orders, little-revised from the [...]
Orders to all manufacturers fell 2.0% (+0.3% y/y) following a 1.3% December rise, revised from 1.8%. The decline roughly matched expectations. A 4.9% shortfall (-0.8% y/y) in January durable goods orders, little-revised from the advance report, led the overall drop in orders. It mostly reflected a two-thirds collapse in defense aircraft orders (-31.6% y/y) as well as a one-third drop (-49.7% y/y) in orders for commercial aircraft & parts. Orders for nondurable goods, which equal shipments, rose 0.6% (1.2% y/y) and reversed the December decline. Shipments of apparel rose 2.4% (-0.5% y/y) while shipments of chemicals gained 0.3% (-2.1% y/y). Shipments from petroleum refineries recovered 0.6% (2.8% y/y) as prices improved. These increases were offset by a 0.6% decline (-1.8% y/y) in shipments of paper products. Shipments from textile mills also fell 0.3% (+1.0% y/y).
Inventories in the factory sector jumped 0.5% in January (2.2% y/y) following three months of having been unchanged. A 1.9% rise (-4.6% y/y) in inventories at petroleum refineries followed three months of decline. Elsewhere, chemical inventories jumped 2.3% (-0.7% y/y) but apparel inventories slipped 0.2% (+7.7% y/y). In the durable goods sector inventories gained 0.2% (4.0% y/y). A 1.5% rise (1.4% y/y) in electrical equipment & appliances was offset by a 0.9% decline (+3.3% y/y) in machinery inventories. Order backlogs fell 0.2% (+1.4% y/y) with the sharp decline in orders and just a moderate fall in shipments.
The factory sector figures are available in Haver's USECON database. The expectation figure is in AS1REPNA.
| Factory Sector- NAICS Classification | Jan | Dec | Nov | Y/Y | 2012 | 2011 | 2010 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New Orders | -2.0 | 1.3 | -0.3 | 0.3 | 2.7 | 11.8 | 18.0 |
| Shipments | -0.2 | -0.0 | 0.3 | 1.9 | 4.1 | 11.8 | 11.2 |
| Inventories | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.0 | 2.2 | 2.4 | 9.4 | 8.8 |
| Unfilled Orders | -0.2 | 0.7 | 0.0 | 1.4 | 2.3 | 10.3 | 9.6 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
More Economy in Brief
