Global| Feb 04 2019U.S. Factory Orders and Shipments Fall
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Manufacturers' orders declined 0.6% (+4.1% y/y) during November following an unrevised 2.1% October fall. The Action Economics Forecast survey looked for a 0.4% rise. Durable goods orders rebounded 0.7% m/m (5.3% y/y) after a 2.1% [...]
Manufacturers' orders declined 0.6% (+4.1% y/y) during November following an unrevised 2.1% October fall. The Action Economics Forecast survey looked for a 0.4% rise.
Durable goods orders rebounded 0.7% m/m (5.3% y/y) after a 2.1% decline. Orders for defense and civilian aircraft recovered following sharp October declines. Excluding transportation altogether, new orders for durable goods fell 0.4% (+4.8% y/y). Strength in orders for metals was offset by a decline in machinery.
Orders for nondurable goods (which equal shipments) fell 1.9% (+2.9% y/y) after a 0.1% uptick. A 9.3% decline in shipments from petroleum refineries led the decline (+5.2% y/y). Basic chemical shipments rose 0.9% (3.9% y/y) and food product shipments gained 0.2% (0.3% y/y). Apparel shipments fell 1.2% (+6.9% y/y). Shipments of durable goods improved 0.7% (6.2% y/y). Computer & electronic product shipments rose 1.0% (5.6% y/y) but machinery shipments slipped 0.4% (+2.7% y/y).
Unfilled orders from the factory sector eased 0.1% (+4.6% y/y) after a 0.2% decline. Durable goods unfilled orders eased 0.1% (+4.6% y/y). Transportation sector order backlogs declined 0.3% (+4.4% y/y) but total unfilled orders less transportation rose 0.2% (4.9% y/y). Unfilled orders of machinery were little changed (3.0% y/y) while computer & electronic order backlogs rose 0.5% (3.7% y/y).
Inventories in the manufacturing sector slipped 0.1% (+4.2% y/y). Durable goods inventories rose 0.4% (4.9% y/y). Machinery inventories gained 0.4% (5.3% y/y) while inventories of computers & electronic products rose 0.3% (1.1% y/y). Electrical equipment & appliance inventories rose 0.9% (8.7% y/y) while transportation sector inventories gained 0.2% (3.4% y/y). Nondurable goods inventories declined 1.0% (+3.0% y/y) as petroleum refinery inventories fell 8.4% (+1.5% y/y). Basic chemical inventories rose 0.6% (5.0% y/y) and paper product inventories improved 0.1% (1.8% y/y).
The factory sector figures are available in Haver's USECON database. The Action Economics Forecasts survey is in AS1REPNA.
| Factory Sector (% chg) - NAICS Classification | Nov | Oct | Sep | Nov Y/Y | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New Orders | -0.6 | -2.1 | 0.2 | 4.1 | 5.7 | -2.9 | -8.2 |
| Shipments | -0.6 | -0.1 | 0.7 | 4.5 | 5.0 | -3.2 | -6.2 |
| Unfilled Orders | -0.1 | -0.2 | 0.7 | 4.6 | 2.0 | -1.2 | -2.7 |
| Inventories | -0.1 | 0.2 | 0.6 | 4.2 | 4.5 | -0.7 | -0.8 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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