Global| Dec 29 2004U.S. Existing Home Sales Up To Record High
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Sales of existing single family homes rose 2.7% in November to 6.94M, the highest level on record. Consensus expectations had been for sales of 6.75M. The figures reflect closings of home sales in earlier months. The rise was driven [...]
Sales of existing single family homes rose 2.7% in November to 6.94M, the highest level on record. Consensus expectations had been for sales of 6.75M.
The figures reflect closings of home sales in earlier months.
The rise was driven by a 6.5% (16.6% y/y) jump in sales in the West to a new record for the region. Sales in the South rose for the second month, also to a record high (+15.5% y/y). In the Midwest sales rose just slightly m/m (+9.4% y/y)) but in the Northeast sales fell moderately for the second month (+4.2% y/y).
The median price of an existing home single family home rose 1.5% to $188,200 (+10.4% y/y).
| Existing Home Sales (000, AR) | Nov | Oct | Y/Y | 2003 | 2002 | 2001 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Existing Single-Family | 6,940 | 6,760 | 13.2% | 6,098 | 5,593 | 5,290 |
by Tom Moeller December 29, 2004
According to the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) Survey, total mortgage applications fell 1.7% last week to a level 39.4% below the peak in early March.
Purchase applications rose 2.7%, the first increase in three weeks. That pulled the average level in December 2.5% ahead of November. During the last ten years there has been a 59% correlation between the y/y change in purchase applications and the change in new plus existing home sales.
Applications to refinance mortgages fell 7.9% w/w. Refis have been falling erratically since the weekly peak during the Spring of 2003. Since then applications to refinance have fallen 82%.
The effective interest rate on a conventional 30-year mortgage rose slightly to 5.99% and so far in December has averaged 5.95% versus 5.97% in November and 6.53% during May. The effective rate on a 15-year mortgage also rose slightly to 5.45%.
The Mortgage Bankers Association surveys between 20 to 35 of the top lenders in the U.S. housing industry to derive its refinance, purchase and market indexes. The weekly survey accounts for more than 40% of all applications processed each week by mortgage lenders. Visit the Mortgage Bankers Association site here.
| MBA Mortgage Applications (3/16/90=100) | 12/24/04 | 12/17/04 | Y/Y | 2003 | 2002 | 2001 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Market Index | 677.4 | 689.3 | 18.0% | 1,067.9 | 799.7 | 625.6 |
| Purchase | 483.8 | 471.1 | 24.0% | 395.1 | 354.7 | 304.9 |
| Refinancing | 1,803.9 | 1,958.2 | 9.7% | 4,981.8 | 3,388.0 | 2,491.0 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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