Global| Jan 26 2012U.S. Durable Goods Orders Rise Again Reflecting Broad-Based Increases
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
New orders for durable goods increased 3.0% last month following a 4.3% rise during November. The full-year gain in orders of 10.1% after the 15.4% rise in 2010 and was consistent with other indications of factory sector improvement [...]
New orders for durable goods increased 3.0% last month following a 4.3% rise during November. The full-year gain in orders of 10.1% after the 15.4% rise in 2010 and was consistent with other indications of factory sector improvement including industrial production, the ISM series and factory payrolls.
Transportation orders increased 5.5% (56.2% y/y) as orders for aircraft & parts rose 13.7%, up by one-quarter for the full year. Orders for motor vehicles & parts inched up 0.6% (9.2% y/y). Outside of the transportation sector orders rose 2.1% (7.0% y/y). That gain was paced by a 6.0% (5.6% y/y) rise in machinery and a 5.1% (36.0% y/y) increase in primary metals. Orders for computers & electronic products rose 1.2% (-9.0% y/y) but electrical equipment bookings fell 1.1% (-1.0% y/y). Orders for nondefense capital goods surged another 5.8% (35.7% y/y) while excluding aircraft orders rose 2.9% (5.3% y/y), up for the first month in three. Reflecting budget cutbacks to reduce the federal government's budget deficit, defense capital goods orders fell 12.4% and were off by one-third y/y.
Shipments of durable goods jumped 2.1% (8.9% y/y) last month. Less the transportation sector shipments also posted a firm 2.4% rise (9.9% y/y). Inventories rose another 0.3% (10.7% y/y) led by a 1.5% rise (16.1% y/y) in transportation equipment. Inventories most everywhere else slipped m/m and rose just moderately y/y. Unfilled orders jumped 1.5% (9.7% y/y) led by a 2.0% gain (26.6% y/y) in machinery.
The durable goods figures are available in Haver's USECON database. The expectation figure is in the AS1REPNA database.
The Fed's statement following it's FOMC meeting is available here.
| Durable Goods NAICS Classification (%) | Dec | Nov | Oct | Y/Y | 2011 | 2010 | 2009 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Orders | 3.0 | 4.3 | 0.1 | 17.0 | 10.1 | 15.4 | -27.3 |
| Nondefense Capital Goods | 5.8 | 9.6 | -3.5 | 35.7 | 14.5 | 28.0 | -31.0 |
| Excluding Aircraft | 2.9 | -1.2 | -0.9 | 5.3 | 10.2 | 17.2 | -20.4 |
| Shipments | 2.1 | -0.3 | 1.5 | 8.9 | 8.0 | 6.2 | -20.4 |
| Inventories | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 10.7 | 10.7 | 9.9 | -9.0 |
| Unfilled Orders | 1.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 9.7 | 9.7 | 3.9 | -15.2 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
