Global| May 27 2014U.S. Durable Goods Orders Retain Upward Momentum
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Manufacturing sector activity continues to register surprising improvement. New orders for durable goods increased 0.8% during April (7.1% y/y) following a 3.6% March rise, initially reported as 2.6%. The increase beat expectations [...]
Manufacturing sector activity continues to register surprising improvement. New orders for durable goods increased 0.8% during April (7.1% y/y) following a 3.6% March rise, initially reported as 2.6%. The increase beat expectations for a 0.7% decline in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. New orders for transportation equipment continued to lead the monthly increase with a 2.3% advance (12.3% y/y) which added to even stronger gains in the prior two months. It reflected a 13.1% jump (5.6% y/y) in defense aircraft & parts bookings. Commercial aircraft & parts orders declined 4.1% (22.5% y/y) after two strong monthly increases while motor vehicle & parts bookings were off 1.0% (+0.8% y/y).
Outside of the transportation sector new orders ticked 0.1% higher (4.8% y/y) last month following a 2.9% jump. New orders for electrical equipment and appliances gained 1.1% (4.1% y/y). The rise was offset, however, by a 2.9% drop (+7.2% y/y) in machinery bookings and a 1.1% shortfall (+2.9% y/y) in orders for computers & electronic products. Fabricated metals orders jumped 3.4% (-0.2% y/y) but primary metals orders declined 0.4% (+5.5% y/y). Nondefense capital goods orders declined 1.0% (+6.7% y/y) following a 9.7% surge. Orders excluding aircraft were off 1.2% (+3.9% y/y) after a 4.7% jump.
Shipments of durable goods slipped 0.2% (+4.6% y/y) on the heels of two months of strong increase. Shipments excluding the transportation sector ticked 0.1% higher (5.1% y/y) following a 1.4% advance. Unfilled orders improved 1.0% (8.2% y/y) after a 0.8% gain, while order backlogs outside of the transportation sector rose 0.7% (6.0% y/y) for the second consecutive month. Inventories of durable goods ticked 0.1% higher (4.3% y/y) after March's 0.2% rise. Inventories outside the transportation sector were unchanged (2.2% y/y) following a 0.1% uptick.
The durable goods figures are available in Haver's USECON database. The Action Economics consensus forecast figure is in the AS1REPNA database.
| Durable Goods NAICS Classification | Apr | Mar | Feb | Y/Y | 2013 | 2012 | 2011 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New Orders (SA, %) | 0.8 | 3.6 | 2.6 | 7.1 | 5.2 | 4.1 | 11.0 |
| Transportation | 2.3 | 5.0 | 6.9 | 12.3 | 7.9 | 8.9 | 14.9 |
| Total Excluding Transportation | 0.1 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 4.8 | 4.0 | 2.1 | 9.5 |
| Nondefense Capital Goods | -1.0 | 9.7 | -1.8 | 6.7 | 8.7 | 3.7 | 15.3 |
| Excluding Aircraft | -1.2 | 4.7 | 0.1 | 3.9 | 5.0 | 2.1 | 11.6 |
| Shipments | -0.2 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 4.6 | 3.7 | 6.4 | 9.4 |
| Inventories | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.8 | 4.3 | 3.8 | 4.5 | 10.8 |
| Unfilled Orders | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 8.2 | 7.0 | 3.6 | 10.0 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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