Global| Dec 23 2004U.S. Durable Goods Orders Rebounded
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Durable goods orders rebounded 1.6% following a 0.9% decline in October that was twice the advance indication. The Consensus expectation had been for a 0.6% gain. Less transportation, orders fell 0.8% (+11.8% y/y) and added to a 1.3% [...]
Durable goods orders rebounded 1.6% following a 0.9% decline in October that was twice the advance indication. The Consensus expectation had been for a 0.6% gain. Less transportation, orders fell 0.8% (+11.8% y/y) and added to a 1.3% decline in October.
Transportation equipment orders rose 8.2% reflecting a 41.9% spurt in aircraft & parts orders. Primary metals orders rose 3.9% (+23.6% y/y) but orders for fabricated metals eased 0.4% (+12.5% y/y).
Nondefense capital goods orders surged 8.1% m/m led by a 64.2% jump in aircraft. Excluding aircraft, orders rose 1.8% and recouped about half of the decline in October. A 4.6% (9.8% y/y) rise in orders for electrical equipment & appliances led the gain, however, that was offset by a 4.2% decline (+12.6% y/y) in orders for computers & electronic products, off for the second consecutive month. Machinery orders fell as well by 3.3% (+16.3% y/y).
Unfilled orders rose 1.2% (9.2% y/y), double the gain in October. Shipments fell for the second month in the last three so the rise in unfilled orders pulled the ratio of backlogs to shipments up sharply.
Inventories of durable goods surged 1.0% (8.3% y/y) after the 0.9% October gain which was revised up sharply. The inventory to shipments ratio rose to its highest level in a year.
| NAICS Classification | Nov | Oct | Y/Y | 2003 | 2002 | 2001 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Durable Goods Orders | 1.6% | -0.9% | 9.7% | 2.6% | -1.7% | -10.5% |
| Nondefense Capital Goods | 8.1% | -3.4% | 21.2% | 5.6% | -7.2% | -15.5% |
| Excluding Aircraft | 1.8% | -4.1% | 14.3% | 6.6% | -7.1% | -12.9% |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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