Global| Jun 24 2021U.S. Durable Goods Orders Rebound in May
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
• Transportation orders surge, while ex-transportation improves further. • Core capital goods orders ease following earlier strength. • Shipments rise along with order backlogs & inventories. The factory sector remains on a firm [...]
• Transportation orders surge, while ex-transportation improves further.
• Core capital goods orders ease following earlier strength.
• Shipments rise along with order backlogs & inventories.
The factory sector remains on a firm footing. Manufacturers' orders for durable goods jumped 2.3% (41.6% y/y) during May following a 0.8% April decline, revised from -1.3%. A 3.0% rise had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey.
Strength in transportation equipment orders propelled last month's increase with a 7.6% jump, more than doubling y/y. The gain was driven by a surge in nondefense aircraft orders as well as a 2.1% increase (95.6% y/y) in orders for motor vehicles & parts. Excluding transportation, orders improved 0.3% (25.2% y/y) following a 1.7% rise in April, revised from 1.0%.
Orders for nondefense capital goods orders excluding aircraft eased 0.1% (22.7% y/y) following a 2.7% April gain, revised from 2.3%. Elsewhere in the report, orders were mixed. Orders for primary metals rose 2.2% (46.9% y/y) but orders for fabricated metal products fell 1.1% (+34.1% y/y). Electrical equipment orders surged 1.3% (23.8% y/y) but machinery orders eased 0.4% (+23.8% y/y). Computer & electronic product orders slipped 0.3% (+8.9% y/y).
Durable goods shipments rose 0.4% in May (31.6% y/y) after easing marginally in April, revised from +0.6%. Shipments of nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft rose 0.9% (20.4% y/y). Shipments of transportation products overall eased 0.4% (+69.0% y/y), while shipments excluding transportation products rose 0.7% (20.9% y/y).
Unfilled orders for durable goods rose 0.8% (-1.4% y/y). Order backlogs excluding transportation rose 1.6% (11.9% y/y).
Inventories of durable goods rose 0.7% (3.3% y/y) in May for the second consecutive month. Excluding transportation, inventories surged 1.0% (2.8% y/y), up from inventory decumulation last spring & summer.
The durable goods figures are available in Haver's USECON database. The Action Economics consensus forecast figure is in the AS1REPNA database.
| Durable Goods NAICS Classification | May | Apr | Mar | May Y/Y % | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New Orders (SA, % chg) | 2.3 | -0.8 | 1.3 | 41.6 | -13.6 | 3.5 | 5.1 |
| Transportation | 7.6 | -6.6 | -3.1 | 106.4 | -35.5 | 13.2 | 1.7 |
| Total Excluding Transportation | 0.3 | 1.7 | 3.3 | 25.2 | -1.2 | -1.3 | 6.9 |
| Nondefense Capital Goods Excl. Aircraft | -0.1 | 2.7 | 1.6 | 22.7 | 1.0 | -0.1 | 5.9 |
| Shipments | 0.4 | -0.0 | 2.7 | 31.6 | -6.3 | -1.4 | 5.7 |
| Nondefense Capital Goods Excl. Aircraft | 0.9 | 1.0 | 1.6 | 20.4 | -0.3 | 0.7 | 6.3 |
| Unfilled Orders | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.5 | -1.4 | -8.2 | 10.2 | -1.6 |
| Inventories | 0.7 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 3.3 | 0.5 | 5.9 | 4.4 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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