Global| Sep 24 2015U.S. Durable Goods Orders Decline Paced By Civilian Aircraft
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
New orders for durable goods fell 2.0% (-1.9% y/y) during August following a 1.9% July increase, revised from 2.0%. The decline matched expectations in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. During the last ten years, there has been an [...]
New orders for durable goods fell 2.0% (-1.9% y/y) during August following a 1.9% July increase, revised from 2.0%. The decline matched expectations in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. During the last ten years, there has been an 88% correlation between the y/y change in durable goods orders and the change in real GDP.
Last month's decline reflected a 5.8% drop in transportation sector orders, paced by a 5.9% falloff (-24.9% y/y) in nondefense aircraft & parts orders. Motor vehicle & parts orders also declined 1.6% (+10.8% y/y) after a 4.9% rise. Orders excluding the transportation sector were little-changed following a 0.4% increase.
Orders for electrical equipment & appliances declined 0.6% (-6.4% y/y) while fabricated metals bookings fell 1.8% (-4.4% y/y). Orders for computers & electronic products eased 0.2% (+5.6% y/y). Offsetting these declines was a 1.0% improvement (-6.7% y/y) in machinery orders and a 0.1% uptick (-11.7% y/y) in primary metals.
Nondefense capital goods orders fell 2.0% (-7.5% y/y) after a 0.7% increase but excluding aircraft, they eased just 0.2% (-4.0% y/y). Defense capital goods orders fell by one-quarter (+3.9% y/y) and reversed July's increase.
Shipments of durable goods remained roughly unchanged (1.1% y/y) after a 1.0% rise. Transportation equipment shipments eased 0.1% (+9.3% y/y) following strength during the prior two months. Shipments excluding transportation were remained unchanged (-2.4% y/y) for a second straight month. Unfilled orders fell 0.2% (-1.2% y/y) and reversed July's improvement. Backlogs outside of transportation also were little-changed (-0.4% y/y). Inventories of durable goods held steady (+2.5% y/y) after a 0.2% dip. Inventories less transportation fell 0.3% (+0.8% y/y), off for the third month in four.
The durable goods figures are available in Haver's USECON database. The Action Economics consensus forecast figure is in the AS1REPNA database.
| Durable Goods NAICS Classification | Aug | Jul | Jun | Aug Y/Y | 2014 | 2013 | 2012 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New Orders (SA, %) | -2.0 | 1.9 | 4.1 | -1.9 | 6.8 | 2.2 | 6.3 |
| Transportation | -5.8 | 5.0 | 10.8 | 0.8 | 6.1 | 6.5 | 16.6 |
| Total Excluding Transportation | -0.0 | 0.4 | 1.0 | -3.1 | 7.2 | 0.1 | 2.0 |
| Nondefense Capital Goods | -2.0 | 0.7 | 10.7 | -7.5 | 6.6 | 2.8 | 10.8 |
| Excluding Aircraft | -0.2 | 2.1 | 1.5 | -4.0 | 6.3 | -1.0 | 7.6 |
| Shipments | -0.0 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 4.8 | 2.0 | 6.3 |
| Inventories | 0.0 | -0.2 | 0.4 | 2.5 | 6.1 | 2.4 | 3.8 |
| Unfilled Orders | -0.2 | 0.2 | 0.0 | -1.2 | 11.4 | 6.4 | 7.5 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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