Global| Mar 13 2018U.S. CPI Total & Core Increases Ease
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Price inflation for both goods & services moderated last month. The Consumer Price Index gained 0.2% (2.2% y/y) in February following a 0.5% January rise. The index excluding food and energy prices increased 0.2% (1.8% y/y) after a [...]
Price inflation for both goods & services moderated last month. The Consumer Price Index gained 0.2% (2.2% y/y) in February following a 0.5% January rise. The index excluding food and energy prices increased 0.2% (1.8% y/y) after a 0.3% gain. Both of the latest readings matched consensus expectations in the Action Economics Forecast Survey.
The three-month annualized rate of increase in the total CPI picked up to 3.6%, while the three-month gain in the core price index accelerated to 3.1%.
Energy product price inflation moderated to 0.1% (5.7% y/y) from 3.0% in January as gasoline prices fell 0.9% (+12.5% y/y) after a 5.7% rise. Fuel oil prices declined 3.6% (+20.7% y/y) after a 9.5% gain. Other energy prices, however, firmed. Electricity prices rose 0.4% (2.2% y/y) after a 0.2% decline, while natural gas costs jumped 4.7% (3.8% y/y) following a 2.6% shortfall.
Food prices were fairly stable (+1.4% y/y) following two months of 0.2% increase. Fruit & vegetable prices fell 0.5% (+2.1% y/y) and reversed January's rise. Dairy product prices eased 0.3% (-1.9% y/y) and have been falling since late in 2014. Prices for meats, poultry & fish slipped 0.2% (+1.7% y/y) for the second straight month. Cereal & bakery product prices were off 0.1% (-0.2% y/y) following a 0.3% rise.
Prices for goods excluding food & energy ticked 0.1% higher (-0.5% y/y) after strengthening 0.4%. The latest rise occurred despite a 1.5% drop (-3.1% y/y) in appliance prices. Furniture & bedding prices rose, however, by 0.2% (-1.0% y/y) after a 0.4% rise. Apparel prices strengthened 1.5% (0.4% y/y) following a 1.7% jump. New vehicle prices declined 0.5% (-1.5% y/y) after a 0.1% dip, and used vehicle prices fell 0.3% (-0.1% y/y) after a 0.4% rise. Education & communication product prices fell 0.5% (-3.0% y/y) after a 0.8% gain.
Nonenergy services prices increased 0.2% (2.6% y/y) after two months of 0.3% improvement. Shelter prices rose 0.2% (3.1% y/y) for a second month as the owners equivalent rent of primary residences increased 0.2% (3.2% y/y), the weakest rise in three months. Medical care prices held fairly steady (1.8% y/y) following a 0.6% jump. Public transportation prices posted a 0.6% increase (-2.0% y/y) following three straight months of decline. Recreation prices improved 0.1% (2.5% y/y) for a second consecutive month. Education & communication services prices eased 0.2% (-1.7% y/y) after little change.
The consumer price data can be found in Haver's USECON database with additional detail in CPIDATA. The Action Economics survey figure is in the AS1REPNA database.
| Consumer Price Index, All Urban Consumers (% chg) | Feb | Jan | Dec | Feb Y/Y | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 0.1 |
| Total less Food & Energy | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 2.2 | 1.8 |
| Goods less Food & Energy | 0.1 | 0.4 | 0.2 | -0.5 | -0.7 | -0.5 | -0.5 |
| Services less Energy | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 2.6 | 2.7 | 3.1 | 2.6 |
| Food | -0.0 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 1.9 |
| Energy | 0.1 | 3.0 | -0.2 | 5.7 | 7.9 | -6.6 | -16.7 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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