Global| Oct 18 2016U.S. CPI Increase Driven by Energy Costs; Core Weakens
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The consumer price index increased 0.3% (1.5% y/y) during September following an unrevised 0.2% rise. It was the strongest increase since April, and matched expectations in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Prices excluding food & [...]
The consumer price index increased 0.3% (1.5% y/y) during September following an unrevised 0.2% rise. It was the strongest increase since April, and matched expectations in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Prices excluding food & energy notched 0.1% higher (2.2% y/y) after a 0.3% increase. A 0.2% rise had been expected.
The strength in the report reflected a 2.9% increase (-2.9% y/y) in energy prices. Gasoline prices jumped 5.8% (-6.5% y/y), the first increase in three months. Fuel oil prices increased 2.4% (-8.5% y/y) while natural gas prices rose 0.8% (2.9% y/y). Electricity costs improved 0.7% (0.1% y/y).
A third straight month of unchanged food prices (-0.3% y/y), after two months of decline, also restrained inflation. A 0.7% fall (-5.0% y/y) in meat prices was accompanied by a 0.3% decline (-0.7% y/y) in fruit & vegetable costs. Egg prices rose 0.3%, but they were one third lower than last year. Dairy product prices gained 0.1% (-2.5% y/y) while cereal & bakery product prices improved 0.1% (-0.5% y/y). Nonalcoholic beverage prices declined 0.4% (-0.9% y/y).
Prices for goods excluding food & energy eased 0.1% (-0.6% y/y), the sixth decline in seven months. Appliance prices were off 1.0% (-3.7% y/y), and apparel prices fell 0.7% (-0.1% y/y). Recreation product prices fell 0.4% (-3.7% y/y). New vehicle prices eased 0.1%, and were unchanged y/y. Home furnishing prices held steady (-2.0% y/y). To the upside were medical care goods prices by 0.6% (5.2% y/y), and education book prices which jumped 0.5% (5.8% y/y).
Non-energy services prices increased 0.2% (3.2% y/y) after a 0.3% gain. Shelter costs increased 0.4% (3.4% y/y), reflecting a 0.4% rise (3.4% y/y) in the owners' equivalent rent of primary residences. Primary residence rental costs rose 0.3% (3.7% y/y). Public transportation prices gained 0.2%, but were down 0.8% y/y. Tuition costs increased 0.2% (2.3% y/y) while recreation services prices improved 0.1% (3.1% y/y).
The consumer price data is available in Haver's USECON database while detailed figures can be found in CPIDATA. The expectations figure is from Action Economics and is found in the AS1REPNA database.
| Consumer Price Index, All Urban Consumers (%) | Sep | Aug | Jul | Sep Y/Y | 2015 | 2014 | 2013 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | 0.3 | 0.2 | -0.0 | 1.5 | 0.1 | 1.6 | 1.5 |
| Total less Food & Energy | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 2.2 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 1.8 |
| Goods less Food & Energy | -0.1 | 0.1 | -0.1 | -0.6 | -0.5 | -0.3 | -0.0 |
| Services less Energy | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 3.2 | 2.6 | 2.5 | 2.4 |
| Food | 0.0 | -0.0 | -0.0 | -0.3 | 1.9 | 2.4 | 1.4 |
| Energy | 2.9 | -0.0 | -1.6 | -2.9 | -16.7 | -0.3 | -0.7 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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