Global| May 13 2011U.S. CPI Driven By Energy & Food
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Higher energy & food prices were behind much of last month's increase in consumer prices. The Commerce Department reported that prices rose 0.4% in April after an unrevised 0.5% March gain. The increase matched Consensus expectations. [...]
Higher energy & food prices were behind much of last month's increase in consumer prices. The Commerce Department reported that prices rose 0.4% in April after an unrevised 0.5% March gain. The increase matched Consensus expectations. The y/y price rise of 3.2% was the strongest since October 2008. On a three-month basis prices rose at a 6.2% annual rate, also the firmest since mid-2008. Core price inflation remained moderate. The CPI less food & energy rose an expected 0.2% but the y/y increase of 1.3% was the firmest since last February. The 2.1% three-month increase in core prices was the strongest since 2009.
Energy prices again led last month with a 2.2% increase. Gasoline prices rose 3.3% (33.1% y/y) while prices for natural gas & electricity rose 0.6% (0.1% y/y). Food & beverage costs rose a firm 0.4% (3.1% y/y), the strongest increase since April 2009. The gain was raised by a 1.7% increase (6.2% y/y) in dairy prices and a 1.1% rise (7.6% y/y) in meat, poultry, fish & eggs.
For goods alone, core prices rose an accelerated 0.4% led by a 0.8% increase in motor vehicles (2.2% y/y). Apparel prices gained 0.2% (0.1% y/y) while prices for household furnishings & operation also rose 0.2% (-0.9% y/y).
Core service prices inched up just 0.1% (1.6% y/y) last month. Education costs rose 0.3% (3.8% y/y) while medical care service prices also rose 0.3% (2.8% y/y). Public transportation costs rose a lessened 0.2% (9.3% y/y). Shelter costs, which are 32% of the CPI, rose 0.1% for the seventh straight month but the y/y change improved to 1.0% due to declines early last year. Owners equivalent rent of primary residences, a measure not equivalent to other house price measures, again nudged up 0.1% while the y/y increase improved to 0.9% after no change last year. Nevertheless, the reading remained nearly the weakest since the series' start in 1983.
The chained CPI, which adjusts for shifts in consumption patterns, jumped another 0.6% and 2.9% year-to-year. Chained prices less food & energy increased 0.2% m/m and by 1.1% y/y.
The consumer price data is available in Haver's USECON database while detailed figures can be found in the CPIDATA database. The expectations figure is the AS1REPNA database.
| Consumer Price Index (%) | Apr | Mar | Feb | Apr Y/Y | 2010 | 2009 | 2008 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 3.2 | 1.6 | -0.3 | 3.8 |
| Total less Food & Energy | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 1.7 | 2.3 |
| Goods less Food & Energy | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.1 |
| Services less Energy | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 1.9 | 3.1 |
| Energy | 2.2 | 3.5 | 3.4 | 18.6 | 9.6 | -18.2 | 13.7 |
| Food & Beverages | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 3.1 | 0.8 | 1.9 | 5.4 |
| Chained CPI: Total (NSA) | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 2.9 | 1.5 | -0.1 | 3.7 |
| Total less Food & Energy | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 1.5 | 2.0 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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