Global| Oct 15 2004U.S. Consumer Spending Firm
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
US retail sales jumped 1.5% last month following a little revised 0.2% decline in August. The gain far outpaced Consensus expectations for a 0.6% rise. Higher sales of motor vehicles led the surge. A 4.2% jump in sales at motor [...]
US retail sales jumped 1.5% last month following a little revised 0.2% decline in August. The gain far outpaced Consensus expectations for a 0.6% rise.
Higher sales of motor vehicles led the surge. A 4.2% jump in sales at motor vehicle & parts dealers reflected the 5.5% m/m increase in unit sales of light vehicles
Excluding motor vehicles sales rose 0.6% after an unrevised 0.2% gain in August. Consensus expectations had been for a 0.4% increase.
Discretionary spending rebounded from a lackluster performance in August. Clothing & accessory store sales rose 0.8% (4.0% y/y) following a 0.7% August drop that was half the decline initially reported.Sales at general merchandise stores surged 1.1% (+5.4% y/y) but sales of furniture/home furnishings & electronics/appliances were unchanged (3.9% y/y) after a 1.1% decline in August that was deeper than the 0.4% decline initially reported.
Building materials, garden equipment & supply dealers' sales surged 1.4% (14.4% y/y).
Sales at gasoline service stations ticked up 0.1% (15.1% y/y) after two months of 0.1% decline. Retail gasoline prices fell in each of those months but in October they are up to $1.99/gallon versus an average $1.87 in September.
Today's remarks on oil by Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan can be found here.
| Sept | Aug | Y/Y | 2003 | 2002 | 2001 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Retail Sales & Food Services | 1.5% | -0.2% | 7.7% | 5.4% | 2.5% | 3.1% |
| Excluding Autos | 0.6% | 0.2% | 7.8% | 5.2% | 3.2% | 3.1% |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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