Haver Analytics
Haver Analytics
Global| Jun 28 2012

U.S. Consumer Sentiment Recovers in Late June

Summary

Consumer sentiment picked up in late June from the early month reading of the University of Michigan's Index of Consumer Sentiment, putting the month's overall index at 84.1, just marginally lower than May's firm 84.5 figure. June's [...]


Consumer sentiment picked up in late June from the early month reading of the University of Michigan's Index of Consumer Sentiment, putting the month's overall index at 84.1, just marginally lower than May's firm 84.5 figure. June's total stands 14.9% above a year ago. Consensus estimates looked for this final figure to come at 83.0, barely higher than the mid-month 82.7 report. During the last ten years, there has been a 60% correlation between the level of sentiment and the three-month change in real personal consumption expenditures.

The total index fell from May because current economic conditions were down 4.3% to 93.8 (+13.0% y/y), although this was an improvement from the mid-month 92.1. Consumer expectations continue to improve, coming at 77.8, up from 76.7 in mid-month and 75.8 in May. The June expectations figure was up 15.1% from a year ago.

The Reuters/University of Michigan survey data are not seasonally adjusted. The final monthly readings are based on telephone interviews with at least 500 households. Data can be found in Haver's USECON database. The expectations figure is from Action Economics and can be found in Haver's AS1REPNA database.

University of Michigan (Q1'66 = 100) June May Apr June'12 2012 2011 2010
Consumer Sentiment 84.1 84.5 76.4 73.2 76.5 67.3 71.8
 Current Economic Conditions 93.8 98.0 89.9 81.5 85.6 79.1 80.9
 Consumer Expectations 77.8 75.8 67.8 67.8 70.7 59.8 66.0
  • Carol Stone, CBE came to Haver Analytics in 2003 following more than 35 years as a financial market economist at major Wall Street financial institutions, most especially Merrill Lynch and Nomura Securities. She has broad experience in analysis and forecasting of flow-of-funds accounts, the federal budget and Federal Reserve operations. At Nomura Securites, among other duties, she developed various indicator forecasting tools and edited a daily global publication produced in London and New York for readers in Tokyo.   At Haver Analytics, Carol is a member of the Research Department, aiding database managers with research and documentation efforts, as well as posting commentary on select economic reports. In addition, she conducts Ways-of-the-World, a blog on economic issues for an Episcopal-Church-affiliated website, The Geranium Farm.   During her career, Carol served as an officer of the Money Marketeers and the Downtown Economists Club. She has a PhD from NYU's Stern School of Business. She lives in Brooklyn, New York, and has a weekend home on Long Island.

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