Global| Jul 26 2013U.S. Consumer Sentiment Improves
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The consumer feels good. The reading from the Reuters/University of Michigan survey of consumer sentiment during all of July rose to 85.1 from 84.1 in June. The full-month number improved from the preliminary figure of 83.8. The [...]
The consumer feels good. The reading from the Reuters/University of Michigan survey of consumer sentiment during all of July rose to 85.1 from 84.1 in June. The full-month number improved from the preliminary figure of 83.8. The latest level was the highest since July of 2007 and was up from its August 2011 low of 55.8. Consensus expectations had been for a gain to 84.0. During the last ten years, there has been a 59% correlation between the level of sentiment and the three-month change in real personal consumption expenditures.
This month's increase in overall sentiment owed to offsetting movements in the index components. The July reading of current economic conditions rose to 98.6 from 93.8 in June. The figure was the highest since July 2007. Working the other way, the consumer expectations figure slipped to 76.5 this month from 77.8 in June. It nevertheless retained its improvement from an August 2011 low of 47.6.
The Reuters/University of Michigan survey data are not seasonally adjusted. The final monthly readings are based on telephone interviews with at least 500 households. Data can be found in Haver's USECON database. The expectations figure is from Action Economics and can be found in Haver's AS1REPNA database.
What's Weighing On Inflation? from the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland is available here.
| Reuters/University of Michigan (Q1'66 = 100) | July | June | May | July'12 | 2012 | 2011 | 2010 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consumer Sentiment | 85.1 | 84.1 | 84.5 | 72.3 | 76.5 | 67.3 | 71.8 |
| Current Economic Conditions | 98.6 | 93.8 | 98.0 | 82.7 | 85.6 | 79.1 | 80.9 |
| Consumer Expectations | 76.5 | 77.8 | 75.8 | 65.6 | 70.7 | 59.8 | 66 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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