Global| Aug 16 2013U.S. Consumer Sentiment Falls Unexpectedly
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The reading from the Reuters/University of Michigan survey of consumer sentiment during mid-August fell sharply to 80.0 (+7.7% y/y) from an unrevised 85.1 in July. Consensus expectations had been for stability at 85.0. The latest [...]
The reading from the Reuters/University of Michigan survey of consumer sentiment during mid-August fell sharply to 80.0 (+7.7% y/y) from an unrevised 85.1 in July. Consensus expectations had been for stability at 85.0. The latest level was the lowest since April but still was up sharply versus its August 2011 low of 55.8. During the last ten years, there has been a 58% correlation between the level of sentiment and the three-month change in real personal consumption expenditures.
This month's downdraft in overall sentiment reflected declines in both of the major component series. The mid-August reading of current economic conditions fell to 91.0 (+2.6% y/y) from 98.6 in July. In sympathy with that fall, the consumer expectations figure dropped to 72.9 (+12.0% y/y) this month from 76.5 in July.
The Reuters/University of Michigan survey data are not seasonally adjusted. The final monthly readings are based on telephone interviews with at least 500 households. Data can be found in Haver's USECON database. The expectations figure is from Action Economics and can be found in Haver's AS1REPNA database.
| Reuters/University of Michigan (Q1'66 = 100) | Mid-Aug | July | June | Aug'12 | 2012 | 2011 | 2010 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consumer Sentiment | 80.0 | 85.1 | 84.1 | 74.3 | 76.5 | 67.3 | 71.8 |
| Current Economic Conditions | 91.0 | 98.6 | 93.8 | 88.7 | 85.6 | 79.1 | 80.9 |
| Consumer Expectations | 72.9 | 76.5 | 77.8 | 65.1 | 70.7 | 59.8 | 66 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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