Global| Jan 08 2019U.S. Consumer Credit Usage Remains Strong
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Consumers continue to expand their credit balances as employment increases. Consumer credit outstanding rose $22.16 billion during November following a $24.97 billion October gain, revised from $25.38 billion. Together, these two [...]
Consumers continue to expand their credit balances as employment increases. Consumer credit outstanding rose $22.16 billion during November following a $24.97 billion October gain, revised from $25.38 billion. Together, these two increases were the largest of the economic expansion. A $15.8 billion gain had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. During the past ten years, there has been a 51% correlation between the y/y gain in consumer credit and y/y growth in personal consumption expenditures.
Nonrevolving credit usage increased $17.37 billion (5.1% y/y) during November. Gains here have been strengthening this year. Federal government borrowing (42% of the total) rose 8.3% y/y. Borrowing from depository institutions (25% of the total) rose a slightly improved 3.8% y/y but finance company balances (18% of the total) eased 0.8% y/y. Credit union loans (13% of the total) rose a strengthened 9.8% y/y.
Revolving consumer credit balances increased $4.76 billion in November (3.0% y/y). Balances at depository institutions (88% of the total) rose a greatly lessened 4.1% y/y. Borrowing from credit unions (6% of the total) rose 8.2% y/y. Finance company balances (2% of the total) fell 11.9% y/y, while nonfinancial business borrowing (2% of the total) held steady y/y.
These Federal Reserve Board figures are break-adjusted and calculated by Haver Analytics. There is a break in the credit outstanding data from November 2010 to December 2010 due to the Fed's benchmarking process. Benchmark estimates are based on the Census of Finance Companies (CFC) and the Survey of Finance Companies (SFC) conducted in 2010 and 2011, respectively.
The consumer credit data are available in Haver's USECON database. The Action Economics figures are contained in the AS1REPNA database.
| Consumer Credit Outstanding (M/M Chg, SA) | Nov | Oct | Sep | Nov y/y | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | $22.16 bil. | $24.97 bil. | $9.64 bil. | 4.5% | 5.0% | 6.7% | 3.0% |
| Nonrevolving | 17.37 | 15.63 | 9.67 | 5.1 | 4.8 | 6.7 | 3.3 |
| Revolving | 4.76 | 9.34 | -0.03 | 3.0 | 5.6 | 6.8 | 2.1 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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