Global| Nov 06 2020U.S. Consumer Credit Unexpectedly Surges in September
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
• Nonrevolving borrowing jumps. • Credit card balances resume their increase. Consumer credit outstanding increased $16.2 billion (0.4% y/y) during September following a $6.9 billion August decline, revised from $7.2 billion. A $7.7 [...]
• Nonrevolving borrowing jumps.
• Credit card balances resume their increase.
Consumer credit outstanding increased $16.2 billion (0.4% y/y) during September following a $6.9 billion August decline, revised from $7.2 billion. A $7.7 billion increase had been expected by the Action Economics Forecast Survey.
Nonrevolving credit usage strengthened $12.2 billion (3.9% y/y) after a $2.8 billion August increase, revised from $2.2 billion. Federal government borrowing, which issues over 40% of nonrevolving credit, grew 5.3% y/y. Depository institution loans (29% of credit) grew a greatly lessened 3.0% y/y, down from 6.8% y/y growth as of December. Finance company borrowing (16.0% of loans) firmed 3.0% y/y and credit union loans (14.0% of the total) increased 3.2% y/y.
Revolving consumer credit balances rebounded $4.0 billion (-9.3% y/y) after pulling back $9.7 billion in August, revised from $-9.4 billion. It was the first increase since February. Year-to-year, credit provided by depository institutions, 90% of the total and mostly credit card debt, declined 9.2%. Credit union borrowing fell 5.2% y/y and finance company loans were off 27.3% y/y.
The dollar value of motor vehicle loans outstanding rose a steady 3.6% y/y during Q3'20, while student loan balances rose a reduced 3.3% y/y.
These Federal Reserve Board figures are break-adjusted and calculated by Haver Analytics. The breaks in the series in 2005, 2010 and 2015 are the result of the incorporation of the Census and Survey of Finance Companies, as well as changes in the seasonal adjustment methodology.
The consumer credit data are available in Haver's USECON database. The Action Economics figures are contained in the AS1REPNA database.
| Consumer Credit Outstanding (M/M Chg, SA) | Sep | Aug | Jul | Sep y/y | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total ($ bil) | 16.2 | -6.9 | 14.7 | 0.4% | 4.6% | 4.8% | 5.3% |
| Nonrevolving | 12.2 | 2.8 | 15.3 | 3.9 | 4.9 | 5.2 | 5.1 |
| Revolving | 4.0 | -9.7 | -0.7 | -9.3 | 3.8 | 3.6 | 6.0 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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