Global| Dec 07 2020U.S. Consumer Credit Increase Continues in October
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
• Nonrevolving usage remains firm. • Credit card balances are reduced further. Consumer credit outstanding increased $7.2 billion (0.2% y/y) during October following a $15.0 billion September strengthening, revised from $16.2 billion. [...]
• Nonrevolving usage remains firm.
• Credit card balances are reduced further.
Consumer credit outstanding increased $7.2 billion (0.2% y/y) during October following a $15.0 billion September strengthening, revised from $16.2 billion. A $16.5 billion increase had been expected by the Action Economics Forecast Survey.
Nonrevolving credit usage jumped $12.7 billion (4.0% y/y), about the same as it did in September, revised from $12.2 billion. Federal government borrowing, which issues over 40% of nonrevolving credit, grew 5.3% y/y. Depository institution loans (29% of credit) grew a greatly lessened 2.4% y/y, down from 6.8% y/y growth as of December. Finance company borrowing (16.0% of loans) firmed 3.7% y/y and credit union loans (14.0% of the total) also increased 3.7% y/y.
Revolving consumer credit balances retreated $5.5 billion in October after September's $2.6 billion increase, revised from $4.0 billion. It was the seventh decline in the last eight months, which included double-digit balance pay-downs this spring. Credit provided by depository institutions (90% of the total and mostly credit card debt), dropped 10.5% y/y. Credit union borrowing fell 5.6% y/y and finance company loans were off 25.8% y/y.
These Federal Reserve Board figures are break-adjusted and calculated by Haver Analytics. The breaks in the series in 2005, 2010 and 2015 are the result of the incorporation of the Census and Survey of Finance Companies, as well as changes in the seasonal adjustment methodology.
The consumer credit data are available in Haver's USECON database. The Action Economics figures are contained in the AS1REPNA database.
| Consumer Credit Outstanding (M/M Chg, SA) | Oct | Sep | Aug | Oct y/y | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total ($ bil) | 7.2 | 15.0 | -8.6 | 0.2% | 4.6% | 4.8% | 5.3% |
| Nonrevolving | 12.7 | 12.4 | 2.2 | 4.0 | 4.9 | 5.2 | 5.1 |
| Revolving | -5.5 | 2.6 | -10.8 | -10.4 | 3.8 | 3.6 | 6.0 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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