Global| Feb 07 2017U.S. Consumer Credit Growth Eases M/M and Y/Y
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Consumer credit outstanding increased $14.2 billion during December following a little-revised $25.2 billion November gain. A $20.0 billion increase had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Full-year growth in [...]
Consumer credit outstanding increased $14.2 billion during December following a little-revised $25.2 billion November gain. A $20.0 billion increase had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Full-year growth in consumer credit, at 6.4%, was the weakest since 2013. Consumer credit outstanding rose to 26.3% of disposable personal income by the end of last year, versus 25.7% at the end of 2015. Over the past ten years, there has been a 46% correlation between the y/y growth in consumer credit and y/y growth in personal consumption expenditures.
Nonrevolving credit gained $11.8 billion (6.5% y/y) after a $13.4 billion increase. Federal government loans (38% of the total) rose 10.6% y/y. Finance company balances (22% of the total) fell 2.0% y/y. Borrowing from depository institutions (25% of the total) improved 7.3% y/y, and credit union loans (12% of the total) strengthened 12.3% y/y.
The gain in revolving consumer credit eased to $2.4 billion (6.1% y/y) after an $11.8 billion surge. Balances at depository institutions (84% of the total) increased 7.0% y/y. Finance company holdings (6% of the total) fell 3.0% y/y, while borrowing from credit unions (5% of the total) advanced 7.4% y/y.
Student loan balances increased 6.5% y/y, roughly half the rate of growth averaged from 2007 to 2009. Motor vehicle loans rose 7.1% y/y, the slowest rate of increase since 2011.
These Federal Reserve Board figures are break-adjusted and calculated by Haver Analytics. There is a break in the credit outstanding data from November 2010 to December 2010 due to the Fed's benchmarking process. Benchmark estimates are based on the Census of Finance Companies (CFC) and the Survey of Finance Companies (SFC) conducted in 2010 and 2011, respectively.
The consumer credit data are available in Haver's USECON database. The Action Economics figures are contained in the AS1REPNA database.
| Consumer Credit Outstanding (M/M Chg, SA) | Dec | Nov | Oct | Y/Y | 2016 | 2015 | 2014 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | $14.2 bil. | $25.2 bil. | $16.0 bil. | 6.4% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 7.2% |
| Revolving | 2.4 | 11.8 | 2.4 | 6.1 | 6.1 | 5.2 | 3.9 |
| Nonrevolving | 11.8 | 13.4 | 13.7 | 6.5 | 6.5 | 7.7 | 8.4 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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