Global| Feb 24 2014U.S. Chicago Fed National Activity Index Weakens
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The Chicago Federal Reserve reported that its National Activity Index (CFNAI) fell sharply last month to -0.39 from -0.03 in December, revised from 0.16. The latest level was down from November's high of 0.73. As a result, the three- [...]
The Chicago Federal Reserve reported that its National Activity Index
(CFNAI) fell sharply last month to -0.39 from -0.03 in December, revised
from 0.16. The latest level was down from November's high of 0.73. As a
result, the three-month moving average fell to 0.10, the lowest level
since September. During the last ten years, there has been a 80%
correlation between the Chicago Fed Index and the q/q change in real GDP.
Monthly changes in the index components were mixed in January. Most of the downward pressure resulted from a sharply lower Production & Income reading of -0.36 versus 0.06. The Personal Consumption & Housing index fell to -0.18 versus -0.14. Offsetting these declines, the Employment, Unemployment & Hours index improved to 0.13 from 0.06 while the Sales, Orders & Inventories series ticked higher to 0.02 versus -0.01. The Chicago Fed reported that during January, 41 of the 85 individual indicators made positive contributions to the overall index while 44 made negative contributions.
The CFNAI is a weighted average of 85 indicators of national economic activity. It is constructed to have an average value of zero and a standard deviation of one. Since economic activity tends toward trend growth rate over time, a positive index reading corresponds to growth above trend and a negative index reading corresponds to growth below trend.
The Chicago Federal Reserve figures are available in Haver's SURVEYS database.
| Chicago Federal Reserve Bank | Jan | Dec | Nov | Jan'13 | 2013 | 2012 | 2011 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CFNAI | -0.39 | -0.03 | 0.73 | -0.49 | -0.00 | -0.07 | -0.07 |
| 3-Month Moving Average | 0.10 | 0.26 | 0.36 | 0.12 | -- | -- | -- |
| Personal Consumption & Housing | -0.18 | -0.14 | -0.06 | -0.18 | -0.15 | -0.21 | -0.29 |
| Employment, Unemployment & Hours | 0.13 | 0.06 | 0.38 | 0.09 | 0.09 | 0.10 | 0.13 |
| Production & Income | -0.36 | 0.06 | 0.19 | -0.30 | 0.02 | 0.04 | 0.05 |
| Sales, Orders & Inventories | 0.02 | -0.01 | 0.22 | -0.10 | 0.03 | -0.01 | 0.03 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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