Haver Analytics
Haver Analytics
Global| Dec 30 2008

U.S. Chain Store Sales Ticked Up But Still Near Lows

Summary

Chain store sales during Christmas week gave nothing to cheer about, according to the International Council of Shopping Centers-Goldman Sachs Index. The level of sales last week fell 1.5% and that reversed about half of the prior [...]


Chain store sales during Christmas week gave nothing to cheer about, according to the International Council of Shopping Centers-Goldman Sachs Index. The level of sales last week fell 1.5% and that reversed about half of the prior week's rise. For the month, December sales did rise but only by a scant 0.3% from the November average. That uptick followed declines of between 1.0% and 1.9% during each of the prior three months. The year-to-year decline in sales of 1.8% was the weakest performance since early 2003. During the last ten years there has been a 59% correlation between the y/y change in chain store sales and the change in nonauto retail sales less gasoline.

The ICSC-Goldman Sachs retail chain-store sales index is constructed using the same-store sales (stores open for one year) reported by 78 stores of seven retailers: Dayton Hudson, Federated, Kmart, May, J.C. Penney, Sears and Wal-Mart.

Perhaps better news on sales are in store. The weekly leading indicator of chain store sales from ICSC-Goldman Sachs jumped another 1.1% after a 0.2% rise during the prior week. And since the lows of several weeks ago the index has recovered 3.4%.

The chain store sales figures are available in Haver's SURVEYW database.

ICSC-UBS (SA, 1977=100) 12/27/08 12/20/08 Y/Y 2008 2007 2006
Total Weekly Chain Store Sales 478.9 486.1 -1.8% 1.4% 2.8% 3.3%
  • Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio.   Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984.   He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C.   In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists.   Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.

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