Tom Moeller

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/090210c.jpg" width="353">
The consumer remained slumbering last week after the holiday season. Chain store sales were roughly stable from the prior week and the latest level also was roughly equal to the January average, according to the International Council of Shopping Centers-Goldman Sachs Index. The year-to year change of -1.8% continued near the weakest in the series&#39; history which extends back to 1990.
During the last ten years there has been a 64% correlation between the year-to-year growth in chain store sales and the growth in general merchandise sales.
The ICSC-Goldman Sachs retail chain-store sales index is constructed using the same-store sales (stores open for one year) reported by 78 stores of seven retailers: Dayton Hudson, Federated, Kmart, May, J.C. Penney, Sears and Wal-Mart.
The outlook for sales continued to worsen as the weekly leading indicator of chain store sales from ICSC-Goldman Sachs fell another 0.8%. It was the fourth straight week of decline.
The chain store sales figures are available in Haver&#39;s SURVEYW database.
 Global Liquidity and Exchange Rates from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York can be found <a href="http://www.newyorkfed.org/research/staff_reports/sr361.pdf">here</a>.

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<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/surveyw/@S2/@S2.HTM">ICSC-UBS (SA, 1977=100)</a></th>
<th scope="col">02/07/09</th>
<th scope="col">01/31/09</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2008</th>
<th scope="col">2007</th>
<th scope="col">2006</th>
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<td class="firstcol">Total Weekly Chain Store Sales</td>
<td>478.6</td>
<td>478.5</td>
<td>-1.8%</td>
<td>1.4%</td>
<td>2.8%</td>
<td>3.3%</td>
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The consumer remained slumbering last week after the holiday season. Chain store sales were roughly stable from the prior week and the latest level also was roughly equal to the January average, according to the International Council [...]

U.S. Chain Store Sales Continued Unchanged Last Week

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Mortgage applications fell 1.4% (+22.7% y/y) in the week ending August 15 after rising 10.9% in the prior week, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey. Applications for purchase loans edged 0.1% higher (22.7% y/y) last week, following a 1.4% gain in the prior week. Applications to refinance a home loan fell 3.1% (+22.8% y/y) last week, following a 23.0% rise in the week of August 8.

The effective interest rate on a 30-year fixed-rate loan held steady at 6.86% in the week ending August 15 after falling from 6.94% in the first week of August. It was the lowest rate since the first week of March, down from a high of 7.28% in the second week of January. The rate on 15-year fixed-rate mortgages rose to 6.13% in the latest week from 6.09% in the week of August 8. Conversely, the rate on 30-year Jumbo loans decreased to 6.82% last week from 6.86% one week earlier. The rate on a 5-year ARM rose to 6.24% in the week of August 15 and reversed the prior week’s decline to 6.05%.

The share of applications for refinancing an existing loan eased to 46.1% of total applications in the week ending August 15 after rising to 46.5% in the prior week. The share hit a low of 34.6% in the fourth week of May. The adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) share of activity declined to 8.60% in the latest week after rising to 9.60% in the week of August 8.

The average size of a mortgage loan fell 2.7% (+4.1% y/y) to $387,800 in the week of August 15, following a 4.5% rise in the prior week. The average size of a purchase loan edged 0.5% higher (0.6% y/y) to $429,000 in the latest week after falling 1.2% in the week ending August 8. The average size of a loan to refinance a mortgage fell 7.3% (+9.5% y/y) to $339,800 last week, after rising 18.3% to $366,400 in the prior week. It was increased from $277,900 in the last week of May.

The Mortgage Bankers Association Survey covers 75% of all U.S. retail residential mortgage applications and has been conducted weekly since 1990. Respondents include mortgage bankers, commercial banks and thrifts. The base period and value for all indexes is March 16, 1990=100. The figures for weekly mortgage applications and interest rates are available in Haver’s **SURVEYS** database.

**Tracking Labor Market Stress** from the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco is available [here](https://www.frbsf.org/research-and-insights/publications/economic-letter/2025/08/tracking-labor-market-stress/).

- Purchase applications edge higher while loan refinancing declines.
- Effective fixed-interest rate on 30-year loans remains at four-month low.
- Average loan size declines.

U.S. Mortgage Applications Decline Last Week as Interest Rates Steady

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Total housing starts increased 5.2% (12.9% y/y) in July to 1.428 million (SAAR) after rising 5.9% in June to 1.358 million, revised from 1.321 million, and falling 8.3% to 1.282 in May, revised from 1.263 million, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. Total starts in July remained 22.5% below their peak of 1.820 million units reached in April 2022. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected 1.30 million starts in July.

Single-family starts in July rose 2.8% (7.8% y/y) to 939,000 after falling 3.8% in June to 913,000, revised from 883,000, and edging 0.1% higher in May to 949,000, revised from 926,000. Multi-family starts surged 9.9% (24.1% y/y) in July to 489,000 after strengthening 33.6% in June to 445,000, revised from 438,000, and declining 26.0% to a little-revised 333,000 units in May.

Housing starts in the Midwest surged 33.3% (40.8% y/y) in July to 252,000 after rising 3.3% in June. Adding to this increase, starts in the South rose 19.2% (29.5% y/y) to 833,000 after holding steady in June. Offsetting these gains, starts in the West declined 27.5% (-14.4% y/y) to 232,000 after rising 8.1% in June. Housing starts in the Northeast declined 26.0% (-35.5% y/y) to 111,000 after increasing 44.2% in June.

Building permits declined 2.8% (-5.7% y/y) last month to 1.354 million after easing slightly in June. It was the fourth consecutive monthly decline. Single-family permits rose 0.5% (-7.9% y/y) in July to 870,000 after weakening for four straight months. Multi-family permits fell 8.2% (-1.4% y/y) to 484,000 after rising 6.5% in June. Building permits in the Northeast rose 25.2% (-7.9% y/y), and they edged up 0.5% (12.9% y/y) in the Midwest. In the South, building permits declined 4.6% (-6.1% y/y) while in the West, building permits weakened 10.1% (-15.2% y/y).

The housing starts and building permits figures can be found in Haver’s **USECON** database. The expectations figure is contained in the **AS1REPNA** database.

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- Increase brings starts to five-month high.
- Multi-family starts surge while single-family starts rise moderately.
- Building permits decline is led by multi-family.

U.S. Housing Starts Strengthen Unexpectedly in July

Winnie Tapasanun

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Online retail sales, formally known as retail e-commerce sales, rose a seasonally adjusted 1.4% q/q in Q2'25 to $304.2 billion following a 0.1% downtick in Q1’25 (0.0% initially) and a 1.7% increase in Q4’24 (unrevised), according to the U.S. Census Bureau. The Q2’25 reading was the 14th q/q gain in 15 quarters. The year-on-year rate of increase decelerated to 5.3% in Q2'25, the lowest since Q2'22, from 6.0% Q1’25. The latest y/y number was lower than 7.1% in Q2'24; thus, having remained significantly below a high of 45.3% in Q1'21 and a peak of 53.5% in Q2’20.

The Q2'25 rise in retail e-commerce sales compared to a 0.4% q/q gain (3.9% y/y) to $1,865.4 billion in total retail sales during the same period. This overall measure of retail sales excludes food services and restaurant sales. Retail e-commerce sales accounted for 16.3% of total retail sales in Q2'25 following 16.1% in Q1'25, registering the highest rate since Q2'20; the percentage was 16.1% in 2024, 15.3% in 2023, and 7.1% in 2015.

Details of the retail e-commerce sales data by sector are not seasonally adjusted. Sales of nonstore retailers, which accounted for 58.5% of total e-commerce sales, rose 5.3% (1.8% y/y) in Q2'25, the fourth q/q rise in five quarters, following a 20.7% decrease in Q1'25. Building materials & garden equipment sales recovered 34.7% (9.9% y/y), the largest q/q gain since Q2'20, reversing a 16.2% drop. Health & personal care sales rebounded 12.8% (1.7% y/y), the second q/q increase in three quarters, after having plummeted 40.9%.

Clothing accessory store sales rose 9.2% (-1.3% y/y) in Q2'25 after a 38.3% plunge in Q1'25. General merchandise store sales increased 8.4% (17.2% y/y) following a 20.9% drop. Sales of furniture & home furnishings rose 5.1% (4.4% y/y) after a 15.6% fall. Sporting goods, hobby, musical instrument & book sales grew 4.3% (6.7% y/y) following a 31.3% slump. These series registered the fourth q/q gain in five quarters.

Sales of motor vehicles & parts advanced 8.3% (15.9% y/y) in Q2'25, the largest of six straight q/q increases, on top of a 1.0% rise in Q1'25. Miscellaneous sales including gasoline stations recovered 2.6% (2.3% y/y), up for the second quarter in three, following a 2.3% decline. Food & beverage sales excluding food services rose 0.8% (15.5% y/y), the third q/q rise in four quarters, after a 0.1% easing.

E-commerce sales are goods and services ordered over an internet, mobile device (M-commerce), extranet, Electronic Data Interchange (EDI) network, electronic mail, or other comparable online system. Payment may or may not be made online and sometimes sale & price are negotiated. Total sales estimates are adjusted for seasonal variation, but not for price changes. They are also adjusted for trading-day differences and moving holidays.

Retail e-commerce sales data can be found in Haver's **USECON** database.

- Sales +1.4%, the 14th q/q rise in 15 qtrs.; +5.3% y/y, the lowest since Q2'22.
- Online share of total retail sales up to 16.3%, the highest since Q2'20.
- Nonstore sales rebound, up for the fourth quarter in five.
- Widespread gain in online sales led by bldg. materials & garden equipt. (+34.7% q/q).

U.S. Retail E-Commerce Sales Rise in Q2'25

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Retail gasoline prices for all grades, on average, inched up to $3.25 per gallon (-7.1% y/y) last week after falling to $3.24 one week earlier. Prices remained above their low of $3.13 in the week of December 9. The recent high was $3.79 in the week ending April 22, 2024. Their all-time high of $5.11 occurred in the week ending June 13, 2022. The retail price for on-highway diesel fuel fell to $3.71 per gallon (+0.7% y/y) in the week of August 18 after easing to $3.75 in the prior week. The latest diesel price stood well below a high of $4.63 in the week ending September 18, 2023 and a peak of $5.81 in the week ending June 20, 2022.

The price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil declined to $63.31 per barrel (-19.7% y/y) in the week ended August 15 from $64.71 in the prior week. The drop left prices at the lowest level since the first week of June. Prices remained above a $59.04 low in the second week of May. The cost of crude oil peaked at $120.46 in the week of June 10, 2022. Yesterday, the price was $63.96 per barrel. The price of European Brent crude fell to $67.17 per barrel (-18.6% y/y) in the week of August 15, after falling to $68.17 in the prior week. Prices remained below a recent high of $95.61 in the week of September 29, 2023 and below a peak of $127.40 in June 2022. The price was $68.18 per gallon yesterday.

Natural gas prices slipped to an average $2.94/mmbtu (+38.0% y/y) in the week ended August 15, after falling to an average $2.99/mmbtu in the prior week. Prices remained well above a low of $1.40/mmbtu in the week of March 15, 2024 but below their peak of $9.56 in the week of August 26, 2022. Yesterday, the price was $2.96 per mmbtu.

Gasoline demand declined 1.5% y/y in the four weeks ending August 8, following a 2.2% y/y decline in the prior four weeks. Demand for all petroleum products rose 2.9% y/y in the four weeks ending August 8, after a 1.6% y/y increase in the previous four-week period. Crude oil input to refineries rose 4.2% y/y in the four weeks ending August 8, after a 2.9% y/y gain in the prior four weeks.

Gasoline inventories rose 1.8% y/y in the week ending August 8 after a 0.9% y/y in the prior week. Residual fuel oil inventories fell 25.7% y/y in the week of August 8, after a 25.8% y/y fall in the prior week. Crude oil inventories rose 2.8% y/y in the week of August 8 after a 2.7% y/y rise in the previous week.

Measured in days’ supply, gasoline inventories stood at 25.0 days in the week of August 8, unchnged from the prior week. The recent low was 22.9 days in the week of November 8, 2024. The supply of crude oil held at 25.0 days in the week of August 8, and remained below a high of 31.9 days in the week of March 3, 2023.

These data are reported by the Energy Information Administration of the U.S. Department of Energy. The price and supply/demand data can be found in Haver’s **WEEKLY** & **USENERGY** database.

U.S. Energy Prices Are Mixed in Latest Week