Global| Jul 15 2005U.S. Business Inventory Accumulation Continued Slow
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Total business inventories rose just 0.1% in May following a downwardly revised 0.2% gain in April. The three month change in inventories dropped to 3.3% (AR) versus the 12.1% peak rate of accumulation through last August. The ratio [...]
Total business inventories rose just 0.1% in May following a downwardly revised 0.2% gain in April. The three month change in inventories dropped to 3.3% (AR) versus the 12.1% peak rate of accumulation through last August. The ratio of inventories-to-sales held at the record low of 1.30.
Retail inventories rose 0.2% in May and the three month change remained low at 2.1% versus the peak of 12.4% last April. Excluding autos, however, retail inventories jumped 0.6% due to a 1.5% (7.1% y/y) surge in furniture.
Factory sector inventories were unchanged for the second month and three month growth fell to 2.7%.
Wholesale inventories rose just 0.1% and three month growth fell to 5.7%. During the last ten years there has been a 64% correlation between the y/y change in wholesale inventories and the change in imports of merchandise.
Overall business sales fell 0.1% (+6.9% y/y) following the 12.2% jump during April.
| Business Inventories | May | April | Y/Y | 2004 | 2003 | 2002 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | 0.1% | 0.2% | 7.0% | 7.7% | 1.4% | 1.6% |
| Retail | 0.2% | 0.1% | 3.7% | 5.7% | 3.9% | 5.9% |
| Retail excl. Autos | 0.6% | 0.2% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 2.0% | 2.3% |
| Wholesale | 0.1% | 0.7% | 10.4% | 10.8% | 2.0% | 1.2% |
| Manufacturing | 0.0% | -0.0% | 7.7% | 7.5% | -1.3% | -1.8% |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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