Global| Oct 17 2016U.S. Budget Deficit Reaches Three-Year High
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The U.S. Treasury Department reported that during fiscal year 2016 the federal government ran a budget deficit of $587.4 billion versus $438.9 billion in FY'15. It was the largest budget shortfall since FY'13, and brought the deficit [...]
The U.S. Treasury Department reported that during fiscal year 2016 the federal government ran a budget deficit of $587.4 billion versus $438.9 billion in FY'15. It was the largest budget shortfall since FY'13, and brought the deficit to 3.2% of GDP, up from 2.5% last year. For the month of September alone, a surplus of $33.4 billion compared to $90.9 billion last year. A $29.3 billion September surplus was expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey.
Overall revenues improved 0.6% versus FY'15. The total was pulled lower by a 12.9% y/y decline in corporate income tax payments, compared to 7.2% growth in FY'15. Individual income taxes rose 0.3% y/y following last year's 10.5% rise. Social insurance contributions increased 4.7% y/y while excise taxes fell 3.3% y/y.
Government spending increased 4.5% y/y in FY'16 compared to 5.3% growth in last year. Medicare outlays grew 8.8%, the most since 2009, and outlays on health programs gained a diminished 6.0% y/y. Social Security benefits rose a lessened 3.2% y/y while Veterans Payments grew 9.3% y/y, the most in three years. Income Security Program payments improved 1.0% y/y, the first rise since 2010. National Defense spending edged 0.7% higher, continuing the weakness of the last several years. Spending on Education, Training, Employment & Social Services declined 10.2% y/y while interest payments increased 7.8% in FY'16.
Haver's data on Federal Government outlays and receipts are contained in USECON. Considerable detail is given in the separate GOVFIN database. The Action Economics Forecast Survey numbers are in the AS1REPNA database.
| United States Government Finance | FY'16 | FY'15 | FY'14 | FY'13 | FY'12 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Budget Balance | -- | $-587.4 bil. | $-438.9 bil. | $-483.4 bil. | $-680.2 bil. | $-1,089.2 bil. |
| As a percent of GDP | -- | 3.2% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 4.1% | 6.8% |
| % of Total | ||||||
| Net Revenues (Fiscal Year 2016, Y/Y % Change) | 100 | 0.6% | 7.6% | 8.9% | 13.3% | 6.4% |
| Individual Income Taxes | 47 | 0.3 | 10.5 | 5.9 | 16.3 | 3.7 |
| Corporate Income Taxes | 9 | -12.9 | 7.2 | 17.3 | 12.9 | 33.8 |
| Social Insurance Taxes | 34 | 4.7 | 4.1 | 8.0 | 12.1 | 3.2 |
| Excise Taxes | 3 | -3.3 | 5.3 | 11.1 | 6.3 | 9.2 |
| Net Outlays (Fiscal year 2016, Y/Y % Change) | 100 | 4.5 | 5.3 | 1.4 | -2.4 | -1.7 |
| National Defense | 15 | 0.7 | -2.3 | -4.7 | -6.3 | -3.9 |
| Health | 13 | 6.0 | 17.8 | 14.3 | 3.3 | -7.0 |
| Medicare | 15 | 8.8 | 6.7 | 2.8 | 5.5 | -2.8 |
| Income Security | 13 | 1.0 | -0.9 | -4.3 | -1.1 | -9.1 |
| Social Security | 24 | 3.2 | 4.4 | 4.5 | 5.2 | 5.8 |
| Veterans Benefits & Services | 4 | 9.3 | 6.8 | 7.7 | 11.5 | -2.0 |
| Education, Training, Employment & Social Services | 3 | -10.2 | 34.7 | 25.9 | -21.9 | -10.3 |
| Interest | 6 | 7.8 | -1.8 | 2.8 | 0.4 | -3.0 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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