Global| Dec 10 2014U.S. Budget Deficit Eases With Less Spending
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The Federal Government reported a $56.8 billion budget deficit during November compared to a $135.2 billion during November of last year. For the first two months of Fiscal Year 2015, the deficit of $178.5 billion compares to $-225.8 [...]
The Federal Government reported a $56.8 billion budget deficit during November compared to a $135.2 billion during November of last year. For the first two months of Fiscal Year 2015, the deficit of $178.5 billion compares to $-225.8 billion in the first two months of last year. For FY 2015, the Congressional Budget Office projects the budget deficit will total $469 billion compared to $483.4 billion last year, then rise to $556 billion in FY 2016
The decline in deficit so far this fiscal year occurred as outlays fell 4.0% y/y. Spending on income security dropped 17.7% y/y in the first two months of FY'15 with the improved economy and veterans benefits dropped 15.1% y/y. Medicare payments were off 8.4% y/y and national defense outlays fell 7.2% y/y. To the upside was spending on health care programs by 17.6% y/y and spending on education, training & social services by 15.6% y/y. Net interest spending rose 5.8% y/y and social security spending increased 4.3% y/y.
Net revenues so far in FY 2015 increased 6.0% y/y. Corporate income taxes surged by more than three-quarters y/y. Individual income taxes rose 5.9% y/y and social insurance taxes gained 3.9%. Excise taxes increased 3.1% y/y.
Haver's basic data on Federal Government outlays and receipts are contained in USECON. Considerable detail is given in the separate GOVFIN database.
| US Government Finance | Nov | FY'14 | FY'13 | FY'12 | FY'11 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Budget Balance | -- | $-56.8 bil. | $-483.4 bil. | $-680.3 bil. | $-1,089.2 bil. | $-1,296.8 bil. |
| As a percent of GDP | -- | 2.8 | 4.1 | 6.8 | 8.4 | |
| % of Total | FY'15 YTD | |||||
| Net Revenues (Y/Y % Change) | 100 | 6.0% | 8.9% | 13.3% | 6.4% | 6.5% |
| Individual Income Taxes | 47 | 5.9 | 5.9 | 16.3 | 3.7 | 21.5 |
| Corporate Income Taxes | 10 | 83.7 | 17.3 | 12.9 | 33.8 | -5.4 |
| Social Insurance Taxes | 34 | 2.9 | 8.0 | 12.1 | 3.2 | -5.3 |
| Excise Taxes | 3 | 3.1 | 11.1 | 6.3 | 9.2 | 8.2 |
| Net Outlays (Y/Y % Change) | 100 | -4.0 | 1.4 | -2.4 | -1.7 | 4.1 |
| National Defense | 18 | -7.2 | -4.7 | -6.3 | -3.9 | 1.7 |
| Health | 10 | 17.6 | 14.2 | 3.1 | -7.0 | 1.0 |
| Medicare | 14 | -8.4 | 2.8 | 5.5 | -2.8 | 7.5 |
| Income Security | 16 | -17.7 | -4.3 | -1.1 | -9.1 | -4.1 |
| Social Security | 24 | 4.3 | 4.6 | 5.2 | 5.8 | 3.4 |
| Veterans Benefits | 4 | -15.1 | 7.7 | 11.5 | -2.0 | 17.3 |
| Education, Training, Employment & Social Services | 3 | 15.6 | 25.9 | -21.9 | -10.3 | -20.6 |
| Interest | 6 | 5.8 | 3.0 | 0.4 | -3.0 | 15.8 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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