Global| Feb 04 2015U.S. ADP Measure Indicates Less Job Creation
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The ADP/Moody's National Employment Report indicated that nonfarm private sector payrolls increased 213,000 last month (2.3% y/y) following a 253,000 December rise, revised from 241,000, and a 274,000 increase in November, earlier [...]
The ADP/Moody's National Employment Report indicated that nonfarm private sector payrolls increased 213,000 last month (2.3% y/y) following a 253,000 December rise, revised from 241,000, and a 274,000 increase in November, earlier reported as 227,000. The Action Economics Forecast Survey called for a 220,000 rise during January.
The ADP survey is based on ADP's business payroll transaction system covering 411,000 companies and nearly 24 million employees. The data are processed by Moody's Analytics Inc., then calibrated and aligned with the BLS establishment survey data.
Small business payrolls increased 78,000 (2.3% y/y), the weakest gain since August. Jobs in medium-sized firms, however, increased 95,000 (2.3% y/y), the largest rise in three months. Large business payrolls improved 40,000 (2.3% y/y), the weakest increase in three months.
Jobs in the service sector increased 183,000 (2.3% y/y) following a 206,000 rise. It also was the weakest gain in four months. Trade, transportation & utilities employment rose 54,000 (1.9% y/y) while professional & business employment gained 42,000 (3.7% y/y), the softest rise since August. Jobs in the financial sector improved 11,000 (1.3% y/y).
Construction sector employment grew 18,000 (4.1% y/y), the weakest increase since September. Manufacturing jobs improved 14,000 (1.4% y/y), but that was the easiest rise in six months.
The ADP National Employment Report data are maintained in Haver's USECON database; historical figures date back to April 2001. The figures in this report cover jobs only in the private sector. The expectation figure is available in Haver's AS1REPNA database.
| ADP/Moody's National Employment Report | Jan | Dec | Nov | Y/Y | 2014 | 2013 | 2012 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nonfarm Private Payroll Employment (m/m chg, 000s) | 213 | 253 | 274 | 2.3% | 2.1% | 2.0% | 2.3% |
| Small Payroll (1-49) | 78 | 115 | 121 | 2.3 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 2.5 |
| Medium Payroll (50-499) | 95 | 78 | 93 | 2.3 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 2.0 |
| Large Payroll (>500) | 40 | 61 | 60 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 2.3 | 2.4 |
| Goods-Producing | 31 | 47 | 42 | 2.3 | 1.9 | 1.6 | 2.2 |
| Construction | 18 | 26 | 20 | 4.1 | 3.8 | 3.7 | 2.5 |
| Manufacturing | 14 | 23 | 18 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 1.6 |
| Service-Producing | 183 | 207 | 232 | 2.3 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 2.3 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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