Global| Jan 08 2014U.S. ADP Jobs Survey Continues to Strengthen
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Job creation in the U.S. is building up a head of steam. The ADP/Moody's National Employment Report indicated a 238,000 rise (1.9% y/y) in nonfarm private sector jobs during December, the firmest increase since November 2012. [...]
The ADP survey is based on ADP's business payroll transaction system covering 406,000 companies and roughly 23 million employees. The data are processed by Moody's Analytics, Inc., then calibrated and aligned with the BLS data. Extensive information on the methodology is available here.
Service-producing payrolls increased 179,000 last month (2.0% y/y). Jobs in professional and business services increased 53,000 (2.7% y/y), transportation and utilities employment grew 48,000 (1.9% y/y) and financial activities headcount gained 10,000 (0.8% y/y). Goods-producing payrolls rose 69,000 (1.5% y/y) as manufacturing employment gained 19,000 (0.4% y/y). Construction payrolls improved by 48,000 (3.7% y/y).
Hiring amongst small businesses rose an improved 108,000 (2.0% y/y). Medium sized firms' payrolls advanced 59,000 (1.5% y/y), roughly half of the gains early in 2010. Jobs at large-size companies rose 71,000 (2.3% y/y).
The ADP National Employment Report data are maintained in Haver's USECON database; historical figures date back to March 2001. The figures in this report cover jobs only in the private sector. The expectation figure is available in Haver's AS1REPNA database.
| ADP/Moody's National Employment Report | Dec | Nov | Oct | Y/Y | 2013 | 2012 | 2011 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nonfarm Private Payroll Employment (m/m chg, 000s) | 238 | 229 | 206 | 1.9% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 1.8% |
| Small Payroll (1-49) | 108 | 101 | 76 | 2.0 | 1.7 | 2.1 | 1.1 |
| Medium Payroll (1-49) | 59 | 58 | 44 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 2.1 |
| Large Payroll (>500) | 71 | 70 | 87 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 2.7 |
| Goods-Producing | 69 | 46 | 37 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 2.0 | 1.7 |
| Manufacturing | 19 | 23 | 12 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 1.4 | 1.9 |
| Service-Producing | 170 | 182 | 170 | 2.0 | 1.9 | 2.2 | 1.8 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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