Global| Mar 26 2018Texas Factory Sector Index Weakens
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas indicated in its Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey that the March General Business Activity Index declined to 21.4, its lowest level since November. Production, new orders, shipments and employment [...]
The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas indicated in its Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey that the March General Business Activity Index declined to 21.4, its lowest level since November. Production, new orders, shipments and employment each weakened. The workweek series ticked higher m/m and remained up sharply from the 2016 low.
Finished goods prices received declined to the lowest level in three months. The raw materials prices measure, however, improved to the strongest point since 2011. The cost of labor declined as wages & benefits eased to the lowest level in four months.
The index of expected business conditions in six months declined to the lowest level since August. Most of the sub-series fell m/m. The future employment index held steady but remained near the record high as did the measure of expected wages & benefits.
Each index is calculated by subtracting the percentage reporting a decrease from the percentage reporting an increase. When all firms report that activity has increased, an index will register 100. An index will register -100 when all firms report a decrease. An index will be zero when the number of firms reporting an increase or decrease is equal. Items may not add up to 100% because of rounding. Data for the Texas Manufacturing Outlook can be found in Haver's SURVEYS database.
| Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey (SA, % Balance) | Mar | Feb | Jan | Mar'17 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current General Business Activity Index | 21.4 | 37.2 | 33.4 | 16.9 | 20.4 | -8.8 | -12.5 |
| Production | 12.7 | 27.9 | 16.8 | 18.6 | 19.5 | 2.4 | -1.0 |
| Growth Rate of New Orders | 3.8 | 15.3 | 15.5 | 3.2 | 10.0 | -7.3 | -11.8 |
| Number of Employees | 10.8 | 19.1 | 15.2 | 8.4 | 10.9 | -4.9 | -0.4 |
| Wages & Benefits | 22.9 | 32.2 | 23.3 | 19.7 | 21.7 | 17.6 | 16.5 |
| Prices Received for Finished Goods | 18.5 | 22.5 | 22.3 | 7.5 | 12.3 | -1.6 | -8.5 |
| General Business Activity Index Expected in Six Months | 32.0 | 40.6 | 44.5 | 36.3 | 35.1 | 8.9 | 4.1 |
| Production | 45.7 | 46.0 | 51.6 | 36.3 | 46.6 | 35.8 | 31.1 |
| Growth Rate of New Orders | 34.1 | 37.5 | 40.4 | 38.3 | 37.8 | 24.3 | 20.7 |
| Number of Employees | 34.3 | 34.0 | 44.5 | 28.4 | 35.2 | 16.7 | 14.7 |
| Wages & Benefits | 48.9 | 49.7 | 56.9 | 45.0 | 43.6 | 34.8 | 33.2 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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