Global| May 30 2017Texas Factory Sector Expansion Stays on Course
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas indicated in its Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey that the General Business Activity Index of 17.2 in May remained fairly steady with the prior two months, nearing the highest level of the economic [...]
The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas indicated in its Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey that the General Business Activity Index of 17.2 in May remained fairly steady with the prior two months, nearing the highest level of the economic expansion. The production reading approached a three-year high, and shipments growth jumped to a recovery high. New orders growth strengthened and employment growth held firm.
On the inflation front, the finished goods "prices received" indicator fell to its lowest point since last October, while the raw materials prices index also eased. Readings for both series remained well above the negative figures of 2015 and 2016. Current growth in current wages & salaries strengthened m/m to the highest level since December 2014.
The General Business Activity Index, Six Months Ahead, increased modestly following a sharp April decline. Expected employment rose to a record high but hours rose just modestly. Expected production, shipments and new orders increased. Future wages & benefits eased from the highest point since early-2014 reached last month.
Each index is calculated by subtracting the percentage reporting a decrease from the percentage reporting an increase. When all firms report that activity has increased, an index will register 100. An index will register -100 when all firms report a decrease. An index will be zero when the number of firms reporting an increase or decrease is equal. Items may not add up to 100% because of rounding. Data for the Texas Manufacturing Outlook can be found in Haver's SURVEYS database.
| Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey (SA, % Balance) | May | Apr | Mar | May'16 | 2016 | 2015 | 2014 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current General Business Activity Index | 17.2 | 16.8 | 16.9 | -19.8 | -8.8 | -12.5 | 8.4 |
| Production | 23.3 | 15.4 | 18.6 | -12.6 | 2.4 | -1.0 | 14.5 |
| Growth Rate of Orders | 12.3 | 5.1 | 3.2 | -14.0 | -7.3 | -11.8 | 4.7 |
| Number of Employees | 8.3 | 8.5 | 8.4 | -4.2 | -4.9 | -0.4 | 11.5 |
| Prices Received for Finished Goods | 5.9 | 12.0 | 7.5 | -2.5 | -1.6 | -8.5 | 8.3 |
| General Business Activity Index Expected in Six Months | 31.6 | 27.1 | 36.3 | -0.7 | 8.9 | 4.1 | 17.4 |
| Production | 49.7 | 39.6 | 44.8 | 25.3 | 35.8 | 31.1 | 42.7 |
| Growth Rate of New Orders | 36.4 | 30.9 | 38.3 | 10.4 | 24.3 | 20.7 | 31.5 |
| Wages & Benefits | 42.7 | 45.6 | 45.0 | 31.5 | 34.8 | 33.2 | 43.1 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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