Haver Analytics
Haver Analytics
Global| Jul 25 2006

Price Concessions Support U.S. Existing Home Sales

Summary

Total existing home sales fell 1.3% during June to 6.620M. The decline, however, was slightly less than Consensus expectations for a fall in sales to 6.60M. In addition, it followed a 0.6% May drop that was shallower than originally [...]


Total existing home sales fell 1.3% during June to 6.620M. The decline, however, was slightly less than Consensus expectations for a fall in sales to 6.60M. In addition, it followed a 0.6% May drop that was shallower than originally reported by the National Association of Realtors. Support for home sales may have derived from an easing in home price inflation. The median price of an existing single-family home did rise 1.3% m/m but the y/y gain fell to 1.1% from a 12.8% annual increase last year. The price figures are not seasonally adjusted. Sales of single-family homes fell 0.9%, the fifth m/m decline this year. Versus the first six months of 2005 sales this year are down 4.3% The data cover sales closed in the latest and previous months and contrast to the new home sales (up in May) data which count sales at the signing of a contract. Sales in the Northeast rose 1,2% m/m (-5.7% y/y) and in the Midwest sales were unchanged (-6.3% y/y). In the South sales fell 2.9% (-4.9% y/y) and in the West (-14.1% y/y) sales rose 0.8% (-16.2% y/y). The inventory of unsold existing homes surged another 3.8% (39.1% y/y). The supply of unsold single family homes rose 4.9% (35.7% y/y) though the supply of condos & coops for sale fell slightly m/m (+63.1% y/y). The latest release from the National Association of Realtors is available here.

Texas Housing: A Boom With No Bubble? from the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas is available here.

Existing Home Sales (000, AR) June May Y/Y 2005 2004 2003
Total Home Sales  6,620 6,710 -8.9% 7,064 6,722 6,176
  Single Family Home Sales 5,810 5,860 -8.2% 6,170 5,912 5,443
Single Family Median Home Price (000) $231.5 $228.5 1.1% $206.3 $182.8 $169.1
  • Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio.   Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984.   He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C.   In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists.   Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.

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