Global| Jun 21 2007Philadelphia Fed Index Highest Since Early 2005
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The General Activity Index published by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia improved sharply this month to 18.0 versus a May reading of 4.2. The average level of the index during the second quarter also improved to 7.5, the [...]
The General Activity Index published by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia improved sharply this month to 18.0 versus a May reading of 4.2.
The average level of the index during the second quarter also improved to 7.5, the highest level in a year.
During the last twenty years there has been a 57% correlation between the level of the Philadelphia Fed Index and the quarterly change in real GDP. 
Improvement in the index of general business conditions was led by higher new orders and higher unfilled orders. The number of employees fell month to month after improvement in May while inventories fell sharply.
The index of prices paid fell modestly after sharp gains during the prior four months. For 2Q the index of prices paid was at its highest in nearly one year but the index of prices received fell.Inflation Disconnect from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis can be found here.
| Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook | June | May | June '06 | 2006 | 2005 | 2004 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| General Business Conditions | 18.0 | 4.2 | 0.48 | 8.1 | 11.5 | 28.1 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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