Global| Apr 27 2011Orders in Euro-Area Rise Sharply
Summary
Industrial orders in the Zone continue to expand sharply. Over the recent three months orders have accelerated to a rate of 19.6% up from an annual rate of increase of just 8.4% over six months but still a touch short of their 21.3% [...]
Industrial orders in the Zone continue to expand sharply. Over the recent three months orders have accelerated to a rate of 19.6%
up from an annual rate of increase of just 8.4% over six months but still a touch short of their 21.3% rise over twelve months.
Orders are stronger in EMU foreign markets than are domestic orders. But over three-months domestic orders have accelerated and have
closed the gap
Orders are still mostly strong and accelerating for Europe’s largest economies, including sometimes troubled Spain. Among the largest EMU economics, only France shows some deceleration tendencies and its three month growth rate is only ‘down’ to 9%; growth in France is still pretty firm despite having ratcheted down.
Like the US economy the Euro-Area is showing its best growth in its manufacturing sector. Consumer confidence is weak across most of the Zone except for Germany and the early read on German consumer Confidence from GfK in May is that it edged slightly lower.
The situation in the Middle East continues to dog Europe. And, we are getting into period when some of the growth disruptions from Japan may start to show up. That will probably start more in April than in March. These effects could range from dropping back domestic activities in Europe (if European firms run short of Japan-sourced parts) to increasing activity if Japanese firms have to cut back sales in Europe due to parts shortages that affect them alone. We are still unable to find out, beyond the Japanese firms, which ones are dependent on parts from Japan that might turn out to be in short supply.
But as of February the European MFG sector seems quite sold and is expanding on a broad front.
| Selected Euro-Area Industrial Orders | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SAAR Except M/M | Mo/Mo | Feb 11 |
Jan 11 |
Feb 11 |
Jan 11 |
Feb 11 |
Jan 11 |
||
| Euro-Area Detail | Feb 11 |
Jan 11 |
Dec 10 |
3Mo | 3Mo | 6Mo | 6Mo | 12Mo | 12Mo |
| MFG Orders | 0.9% | 1.2% | 2.5% | 19.6% | 25.6% | 8.4% | 17.8% | 21.3% | 21.9% |
| MFG Sales | 1.7% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 29.6% | 25.7% | 16.1% | 18.4% | 16.7% | 15.9% |
| Consumer | 0.0% | 0.7% | 1.2% | 7.8% | 9.1% | 2.9% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.1% |
| Capital | 0.7% | 1.9% | 2.4% | 22.3% | 17.6% | 14.5% | 21.3% | 16.8% | 17.6% |
| Intermediate | 0.6% | 0.0% | 4.6% | 22.9% | 32.6% | 8.3% | 16.2% | 18.7% | 18.4% |
| Memo:MFG | |||||||||
| Total Orders | 0.9% | 1.2% | 2.5% | 19.6% | 25.6% | 8.4% | 17.8% | 21.3% | 21.9% |
| E-13 Domestic MFG orders | 0.6% | 0.0% | 4.6% | 22.9% | 32.6% | 8.3% | 16.2% | 18.7% | 18.4% |
| E-13 Foreign MFG orders | 1.6% | 3.3% | 0.0% | 21.2% | 32.6% | 14.2% | 21.3% | 23.7% | 27.4% |
| Countries: | Feb 11 |
Jan 11 |
Dec 10 |
3Mo | 3Mo | 6Mo | 6Mo | 12Mo | 12Mo |
| Germany (MFG): | 3.2% | 3.7% | -3.0% | 16.4% | 27.3% | 16.6% | 17.8% | 25.7% | 21.3% |
| France(Ind): | 2.7% | -7.8% | 8.0% | 9.4% | 9.6% | 13.0% | 5.2% | 16.1% | 12.2% |
| Italy (Ind): | 1.9% | -0.4% | 5.5% | 31.6% | 2.3% | 2.2% | 12.3% | 16.3% | 14.1% |
| Spain(Ind): | 0.3% | 4.5% | 1.9% | 30.2% | 28.6% | 13.3% | 18.7% | 10.9% | 11.7% |
| Compare: US Factory Ord | -0.1% | 3.3% | 1.4% | 20.1% | 26.8% | 17.6% | 17.9% | 9.3% | 9.9% |
| Some Euro-Area reporters are timely and some lag. This table allows a sequential inspection of trends regardless of topicality | |||||||||
Robert Brusca
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Robert A. Brusca is Chief Economist of Fact and Opinion Economics, a consulting firm he founded in Manhattan. He has been an economist on Wall Street for over 25 years. He has visited central banking and large institutional clients in over 30 countries in his career as an economist. Mr. Brusca was a Divisional Research Chief at the Federal Reserve Bank of NY (Chief of the International Financial markets Division), a Fed Watcher at Irving Trust and Chief Economist at Nikko Securities International. He is widely quoted and appears in various media. Mr. Brusca holds an MA and Ph.D. in economics from Michigan State University and a BA in Economics from the University of Michigan. His research pursues his strong interests in non aligned policy economics as well as international economics. FAO Economics’ research targets investors to assist them in making better investment decisions in stocks, bonds and in a variety of international assets. The company does not manage money and has no conflicts in giving economic advice.
