Global| May 11 2009OECD LEIs The Long View
Summary
Taken in a rather broad perspective the downturn according to the OECD’s LEIs which are cyclically adjusted is quite severe; the worst since 1970, at least. But the US and several counties in OECD Europe are showing signs of doing [...]
Taken in a rather broad perspective the downturn according to
the OECD’s LEIs which are cyclically adjusted is quite severe; the
worst since 1970, at least. But the US and several counties in OECD
Europe are showing signs of doing less badly which means, potentially,
showing signs of turning the corner on recession.
Readings for France and Italy are up for three months running
through March. China and UK indices are up for two months in a row. The
OECD has characterized these economies and well as the OECD regions as
being in a ‘strong slowdown’. It now says that in France, Italy and the
UK troughs may have been reached.
Among developing countries China shows the clearest sign of
troughing while Brazil and India continue to emit signals that say that
they are still declining.
| OECD Trend-restored leading Indicators | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Growth progression-SAAR | ||||
| 3Mos | 6Mos | 12mos | Yr-Ago | |
| OECD | -5.7% | -10.4% | -9.5% | -0.7% |
| OECD7 | -8.8% | -13.0% | -10.9% | -1.3% |
| OECD US | -11.5% | -15.6% | -12.1% | -1.0% |
| Six month readings at 6-Mo Intervals: | ||||
| Recent six | 6Mo Ago | 12Mo Ago | 18MO Ago | |
| OECD | -10.4% | -8.5% | -1.2% | -0.3% |
| OECD7 | -13.0% | -8.7% | -1.9% | -0.7% |
| OECD US | -15.6% | -8.4% | -2.6% | 0.7% |
| OECD JAPAN | -15.6% | -8.4% | -2.6% | 0.7% |
| Slowdowns indicated by BOLD RED | ||||
Robert Brusca
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Robert A. Brusca is Chief Economist of Fact and Opinion Economics, a consulting firm he founded in Manhattan. He has been an economist on Wall Street for over 25 years. He has visited central banking and large institutional clients in over 30 countries in his career as an economist. Mr. Brusca was a Divisional Research Chief at the Federal Reserve Bank of NY (Chief of the International Financial markets Division), a Fed Watcher at Irving Trust and Chief Economist at Nikko Securities International. He is widely quoted and appears in various media. Mr. Brusca holds an MA and Ph.D. in economics from Michigan State University and a BA in Economics from the University of Michigan. His research pursues his strong interests in non aligned policy economics as well as international economics. FAO Economics’ research targets investors to assist them in making better investment decisions in stocks, bonds and in a variety of international assets. The company does not manage money and has no conflicts in giving economic advice.
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