Global| Dec 05 2008OECD LEIs PLUNGE and It's Only September…
Summary
The LEIs from the OECD are plunging and the outlook is not for more severe slowdowns across the region and for many key members. The Euro Area and the US figures show the most rapid descent while Japan ’s index is going down for the [...]
The LEIs from the OECD are plunging and the outlook is not for more severe slowdowns across the region and for many key members. The Euro Area and the US figures show the most rapid descent while Japan ’s index is going down for the second time in this ‘cycle’.
India , China and Russia are showing signs of increased pain. The Russian index is down especially sharply. This worldwide slowdown is clobbering all those countries that had been expected to be resilient. Russia is being hurt due to its status as a commodity currency, especially as an oil producer.
The drops in the US and European indices are as severe, or more severe, than in the last US business cycle.
| OECD Trend-Restored Leading Indicators | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Growth Progression-SAAR | ||||
| 3Mos | 6Mos | 12mos | Yr-Ago | |
| OECD | -9.2% | -6.7% | -3.8% | 1.6% |
| OECD 7 | -10.1% | -7.3% | -4.5% | 1.0% |
| OECD Europe | -9.1% | -7.4% | -4.5% | 1.7% |
| OECD Japan | -7.2% | -4.3% | -0.8% | -1.4% |
| OECD US | -11.4% | -7.7% | -5.3% | 1.4% |
| Six month readings at 6-Mo Intervals: | ||||
| Recent six | 6Mo Ago | 12Mo Ago | 18MO Ago | |
| OECD | -6.7% | -0.9% | 0.1% | 3.2% |
| OECD 7 | -7.3% | -1.6% | -0.5% | 2.5% |
| OECD Europe | -7.4% | -1.5% | 0.9% | 2.6% |
| OECD Japan | -4.3% | 2.8% | -3.5% | 0.6% |
| OECD US | -7.7% | -2.8% | -0.4% | 3.2% |
| Slowdowns indicated by BOLD RED. | ||||
Robert Brusca
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Robert A. Brusca is Chief Economist of Fact and Opinion Economics, a consulting firm he founded in Manhattan. He has been an economist on Wall Street for over 25 years. He has visited central banking and large institutional clients in over 30 countries in his career as an economist. Mr. Brusca was a Divisional Research Chief at the Federal Reserve Bank of NY (Chief of the International Financial markets Division), a Fed Watcher at Irving Trust and Chief Economist at Nikko Securities International. He is widely quoted and appears in various media. Mr. Brusca holds an MA and Ph.D. in economics from Michigan State University and a BA in Economics from the University of Michigan. His research pursues his strong interests in non aligned policy economics as well as international economics. FAO Economics’ research targets investors to assist them in making better investment decisions in stocks, bonds and in a variety of international assets. The company does not manage money and has no conflicts in giving economic advice.
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