Global| Sep 13 2004OECD Leaders Broadly Stalled
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The Index of Leading Indicators for the Major Seven OECD Countries fell slightly in July and continued the lackluster performance of the last five months. Since February the leading index is about unchanged and the index's six-month [...]
The Index of Leading Indicators for the Major Seven OECD Countries fell slightly in July and continued the lackluster performance of the last five months. Since February the leading index is about unchanged and the index's six-month growth rate dropped to 2.9% from 7.8%.
Leaders in the United States rose 0.1% in July continuing recent months' weakened rate of gain. The six-month growth in the US leaders dropped to 4.5% versus 11.6% in January. In Japan the July leaders fell 0.1% for the third monthly decline this year and that pulled the six-month growth to 0.4% from 3.4% in January.
The leading index for the European Union also fell in July and the growth rate dropped to 2.7% from 6.2% in January. The German leaders grew at a 4.3% rate, down from 8.4%, and the French leaders decelerated to a 5.8% rate of growth versus 8.0% at the start of the year. Leaders in Italy have fallen during the last four consecutive months and growth has dropped to -2.0% from +2.1%. In the UK the leaders fell for the fourth month in the last five and the six month growth rate fell to -0.7% from 5.0s.
In Canada gains in the leaders have been scattered and growth is down to 2.5% from 7.2% in January.
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| OECD Main Economic Indicators | July | June | 6-Mth Chg | 2003 | 2002 | 2001 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OECD Major Seven - Leading Index (Trend Restored) |
102.5 | 102.5 | 2.9% | 2.6% | 2.3% | -3.1% |
| European Union | 105.5 | 105.5 | 2.7% | 2.3% | 3.5% | -2.4% |
| Japan | 97.7 | 97.8 | 0.4% | 1.8% | 0.3% | -4.5% |
| United States | 103.4 | 103.3 | 4.5% | 3.8% | 2.0% | -3.3% |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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