Global| Jul 29 2002OECD Growth on the Mend?
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The OECD Index of Leading Indicators improved further in May. The index rose to the highest level since October 2000, continuing an uptrend that began this past November. Real economic growth in the Major Seven OECD countries also [...]
The OECD Index of Leading Indicators improved further in May. The index rose to the highest level since October 2000, continuing an uptrend that began this past November.
Real economic growth in the Major Seven OECD countries also improved, to 4.4% (AR) in 1Q02. That followed three consecutive negative growth quarters. The surge was due to strong 6.1% growth in the US as well as 5.7% growth in Japan. Growth in Europe was anemic, not only on the Continent but in the UK as well .
In Germany, industrial production has moved somewhat higher since a low this past October, but gains have been scattered and modest. In the UK, production rose for the first time in April following seven consecutive down months. Production in France rose in April for the fourth consecutive month (0.9% y/y). Production in Japan jumped 3.8% in May following gains the prior three months.
| OECD Main Economic Indicators | 1Q02 | 4Q01 | Y/Y | 2001 | 2000 | 1999 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OECD Major Seven - GDP (Mil. 95 US$, SAAR) | 4.4% | -0.2% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 3.6% | 3.0% |
| European Union - GDP (Mil. 95 US$, SAAR) | 0.7% | -0.5% | 0.5% | 1.7% | 3.6% | 2.7% |
| Germany - GDP (Bil. 95 Euros, SAAR) | 0.7% | -1.0% | -0.2% | 0.7% | 3.2% | 1.7% |
| United Kingdom - GDP (Mil. 95 Pounds, SAAR) | 0.6% | 0.4% | 1.1% | 1.9% | 3.1% | 2.4% |
| Japan - GDP (Bil. 95 Yen, SAAR) | 5.7% | -4.9% | -1.6% | -0.5% | 2.2% | 0.7% |
| OECD Total - Leading Index (Trend Restored) | 9.8% | -1.4% | 0.1% | -3.2% | 3.1% | 3.3% |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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