Global| Dec 11 2014NEW TITILE HERE U.S. Business Inventories Post Moderate Rise as Sales Remain Unchanged
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Total business inventories rose 0.3% during September following a 0.1% August gain, revised from 0.2%. Perhaps prompting the accumulation, total business sales were unchanged (4.1% y/y) following a 0.5% August slump, revised slightly [...]
Total business inventories rose 0.3% during September following a 0.1% August gain, revised from 0.2%. Perhaps prompting the accumulation, total business sales were unchanged (4.1% y/y) following a 0.5% August slump, revised slightly from -0.4%. The resulting inventory/sales ratio of 1.30 was unchanged m/m but up versus 1.29 in Q2.
By sector, retail inventories gained 0.3% (5.2% y/y) after a 0.2% decline. Auto inventories rose 0.4% (10.1% y/y) after a 0.8% decline. Retail inventories excluding autos nudged 0.2% higher (3.0% y/y) after no change during August. Building materials inventories rose 1.0% (3.5% y/y) and clothing inventories gained 0.6% (2.1% y/y). Inventories of general merchandise ticked 0.1% higher (2.1% y/y) but furniture inventories fell 1.0% (+3.4% y/y). Wholesale inventories gained 0.3% (7.4% y/y) and factory sector inventories increased 0.2% (3.5% y/y).
Total business sales were unchanged (4.1% y/y) following a 0.5% decline. Retail sales fell 0.4% (+4.0% y/y) after a 0.6% rise while sales less autos slipped 0.1% (+2.8% y/y) following a 0.2% gain. Wholesale sales recovered 0.2% (5.2% y/y) after a 0.8% drop. Factory sector shipments rose 0.1% (3.1% y/y) following a 1.1% drop.
The total business inventory-to-sales ratio remained at 1.30 m/m but that's up from 1.29 in Q2. The retail I/S ratio gained to 1.42 in September and averaged the same for all of Q3, up from 1.41 in Q2. The ratio less autos has been unchanged since May and below Q1 of 1.24. The wholesale I/S ratio of 1.19 also was up from Q2 but the factory sector ratio of 1.30 has been unchanged all year.
The manufacturing and trade data are in Haver's USECON database.
| Manufacturing & Trade (%) | Oct | Sep | Aug | Sep Y/Y | 2013 | 2012 | 2011 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Business Inventories | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 5.3 | 4.3 | 4.9 | 7.9 |
| Retail | 0.3 | -0.2 | 0.9 | 5.2 | 7.1 | 7.4 | 3.7 |
| Retail excl. Motor Vehicles | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 3.0 | 3.8 | 3.2 | 3.5 |
| Merchant Wholesalers | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 7.4 | 4.0 | 5.5 | 9.2 |
| Manufacturing | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 3.5 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 10.2 |
| Business Sales (%) | |||||||
| Total | 0.0 | -0.5 | 0.7 | 4.1 | 3.4 | 4.5 | 10.9 |
| Retail | -0.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 4.0 | 4.3 | 5.0 | 7.7 |
| Retail excl. Motor Vehicles | -0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 2.8 | 3.0 | 4.0 | 7.1 |
| Merchant Wholesalers | 0.2 | -0.8 | 0.4 | 5.2 | 4.3 | 4.8 | 12.4 |
| Manufacturing | 0.1 | -1.1 | 1.4 | 3.1 | 2.0 | 4.0 | 12.1 |
| I/S Ratio | |||||||
| Total | 1.30 | 1.30 | 1.29 | 1.28 | 1.28 | 1.28 | 1.26 |
| Retail | 1.42 | 1.41 | 1.43 | 1.41 | 1.40 | 1.38 | 1.36 |
| Retail Excl. Motor Vehicles | 1.22 | 1.22 | 1.22 | 1.22 | 1.22 | 1.21 | 1.23 |
| Merchant Wholesalers | 1.19 | 1.19 | 1.17 | 1.16 | 1.17 | 1.18 | 1.15 |
| Manufacturing | 1.30 | 1.30 | 1.29 | 1.30 | 1.29 | 1.29 | 1.29 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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