Global| Apr 26 2006New Home Sales Surged Unexpectedly
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Last month new home sales showed surprising resilience with a 13.8% jump to 1.21 million (SAAR), the highest level this year. The jump contrasted to Consensus expectations for a more moderate increase to 1.115M and a 10.9% drop during [...]
Last month new home sales showed surprising resilience with a 13.8% jump to 1.21 million (SAAR), the highest level this year. The jump contrasted to Consensus expectations for a more moderate increase to 1.115M and a 10.9% drop during February was little revised.
Despite last month's increase in sales, the latest level was 11.5% below last July's peak and sales during the first quarter were 9.4% below the 2005 average.
On the up trend has been the number of homes up for sale. That figure rose 2.8% last month and it's up by nearly one quarter during the last twelve months. Most pronounced is the 60.6% y/y gain in homes for sale in the Northeast.
Gains in March sales throughout the nation were robust but most pronounced was a 35.7% (-13.1% y/y) jump out West which recovered about all of the prior month's plunge. Sales in the Midwest also were strong and rose 10.9% (-8.9% y/y) while sales in the Northeast rose 4.7% (-15.2% y/y). The 6.9% gain in sales down South (-2.3% y/y) recovered nearly all of the declines during the prior two months.
Prices were under pressure as suggested by a 6.5% (-2.2% y/y decline in the median sales price. The average sales price fell 7.1% (-3.6% y/y) suggesting either more price discounting of large homes or greater sales declines of large homes.
| U.S. New Homes | Mar | Feb | Y/Y | 2005 | 2004 | 2003 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Sales (AR, 000's) | 1,213 | 1,066 | -7.2% | 1,279 | 1,200 | 1,091 |
| Median Price (NSA) | $224,200 | $239,900 | -2.2% | $234,208 | $217,817 | $191,383 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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