Global| Oct 20 2004Mortgage Applications Rebounded
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Mortgage applications rebounded last week from the prior period's slump, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA). The 7.9% w/w rise did not, however, recoup all of the prior week's 9.2% fall and so far in October [...]
Mortgage applications rebounded last week from the prior period's slump, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA). The 7.9% w/w rise did not, however, recoup all of the prior week's 9.2% fall and so far in October applications are just 0.2% higher than the September average.
Purchase applications rose 5.8% following two weeks of sharp decline. So far in October purchase apps are 2.6% below the September average. During the last ten years there has been a 60% correlation between the y/y change in purchase applications and the change in new plus existing home sales.
Applications to refinance rebounded 10.6% w/w and for the month are 3.9% ahead of September.
The effective interest rate on a conventional 30-year mortgage slipped to 5.90% from 5.95% the prior week. The effective rate on a 15-year mortgage fell to 5.34%.
"The Nationalization of Housing Finance" from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis is available here.
Fed Chairman Greenspan's comments made yesterday on the mortgage market and consumer debt can be found here.
The Mortgage Bankers Association surveys between 20 to 35 of the top lenders in the U.S. housing industry to derive its refinance, purchase and market indexes. The weekly survey accounts for more than 40% of all applications processed each week by mortgage lenders. Visit the Mortgage Bankers Association site here.
| MBA Mortgage Applications (3/16/90=100) | 10/15/04 | 10/08/04 | Y/Y | 2003 | 2002 | 2001 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Market Index | 709.9 | 658.2 | 8.7% | 1,067.9 | 799.7 | 625.6 |
| Purchase | 461.4 | 436.3 | 19.5% | 395.1 | 354.7 | 304.9 |
| Refinancing | 2,155.2 | 1,949.2 | -2.2% | 4,981.8 | 3,388.0 | 2,491.0 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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