Global| Feb 05 2007Michigan Consumer Sentiment Firm for January
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The University of Michigan's final reading of consumer sentiment during January remained quite solid versus December at 96.9 (Q1 1966 = 100). The reading fell, however, from the mid-month read of 98.0. The reading of current [...]
The University of Michigan's final reading of consumer sentiment during January remained quite solid versus December at 96.9 (Q1 1966 = 100). The reading fell, however, from the mid-month read of 98.0.
The reading of current conditions increased to 111.3 from December's 108.1, up 3.0% after a 2.0 rise during that month.
Consumers' reading of personal finances rose 3.4%, the firmest rise in three months, as the sense of buying conditions for large household goods rose 3.1% after a 3.2% December gain. 
The expectations component recouped all of the decline during the prior two months with a 7.9% increase and the rise was to the highest level since 2004. Expected business conditions surge 12.4% and expected personal finances rose 2.4% (5.8% y/y).
Consumers' assessment of government policy and performance rose to the highest level since 2005 but expectations about inflation during the next twelve months rose slightly to 3.6%.
The University of Michigan survey is not seasonally adjusted.This mid-month survey was based on telephone interviews with about 340 households nationwide on personal finances and business and buying conditions. The survey is expanded to a total of 500 interviews at month-end.
| University of Michigan | January (Final) | January (Prelim.) | December | Y/Y | 2006 | 2005 | 2004 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consumer Sentiment | 96.9 | 98.0 | 91.7 | 6.3% | 87.3 | 88.6 | 95.2 |
| Current Conditions | 111.3 | 112.5 | 108.1 | 0.9% | 105.1 | 105.9 | 105.6 |
| Expectations | 87.6 | 88.7 | 81.2 | 11.0% | 75.9 | 77.4 | 88.5 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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