Global| Jul 09 2004Manufacturers Expect Improved Growth: Profits Firm
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The Manufacturers Alliance/MAPI Survey of expected business conditions improved sharply for 2Q04, reflecting sharp improvement in order books. The Composite Business Index rose to its highest level in the series' history which began [...]
The Manufacturers Alliance/MAPI Survey of expected business conditions improved sharply for 2Q04, reflecting sharp improvement in order books.
The Composite Business Index rose to its highest level in the series' history which began in 1991. During that period there has been a 63% correlation between the index level and y/y change in factory sector industrial production.
The index of orders, which measures orders in the current quarter versus last year, also rose to its record high. There has been a 94% correlation between the orders index level and the year to year to year change in factory order.
Profit margins were at the highest level on record as the index rose to 79 versus 73 in 1Q and 47 a year ago. Profit margins rose at a record 68% of the firms surveyed and fell at just 10% of those surveyed.
The index of capital spending plans also rose to 75 versus 69 last quarter. These figures were down somewhat from the record high of 81 in 4Q03 as 59% of firms planned to increase capital spending.
| Manufacturers Alliance/MAPI Survey | 2Q04 | 1Q04 | 2Q03 | 2003 | 2002 | 2001 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Composite Business Index | 80 | 78 | 60 | 67 | 60 | 37 |
| Current Orders Index | 93 | 90 | 53 | 70 | 52 | 30 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
