Global| Sep 07 2010Manpower Inc. Survey Indicates Steady But Slow U.S. Hiring
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The latest Manpower Inc. Survey suggested that while the U.S. labor market continues to grow, the usual post-recession momentum has yet to emerge. For Q4 2010, the level of its seasonally adjusted diffusion index held roughly steady [...]
The latest Manpower Inc. Survey suggested that while the U.S. labor
market continues to grow, the usual post-recession momentum has yet to emerge.
For Q4 2010, the level of its seasonally adjusted diffusion index held roughly
steady at a reading of 5 after a level of 6 in Q3. For all of this year, the
level is just nominally higher versus 2009. Since inception in 1976, there has
been a 79% correlation between the level of the index and the y/y change in
payroll employment.
The detail of the survey indicates that Q4 hiring plans remained positive across industries but real follow through is nowhere evident. The overall not seasonally adjusted diffusion index fell to 4 from 10 for Q3. The indexes for durable manufacturing as well as wholesale & retail trade slipped versus Q3 but elsewhere there was greater slippage, except within the construction and government industries where hiring plans went negative.
The Manpower Inc Employment Outlook Survey is a quarterly measurement of hiring intentions of more than 15,000 employers in 473 cities. Employers declare their intentions to increase, decrease, or maintain the size of their present workforce for the upcoming three-month period.
The figures referenced above are available in Haver's USECON database.
| Manpower Inc.
Employment Outlook Survey (%) |
Q4 | Q3 | Q2 | Q1 | 2010 | 2009 | 2008 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| All Industries (SA) | 5 | 6 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 1 | 13 |
| All Industries (NSA) | 4 | 10 | 8 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 13 |
| Construction | -8 | 8 | 4 | -12 | -2 | -6 | 4 |
| Manufacturing - Durables | 7 | 9 | 8 | -3 | 5 | -6 | 13 |
| Manufacturing - Nondurables | 6 | 12 | 9 | 1 | 7 | -2 | 11 |
| Wholesale & Retail Trade | 13 | 15 | 7 | 4 | 10 | 7 | 13 |
| Transportation & Utilities | 2 | 9 | 8 | -6 | 3 | -4 | 14 |
| Government | -6 | -2 | -1 | -3 | -3 | -3 | 10 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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