Global| Aug 04 2004July U.S. Light Vehicle Sales Rebounded
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Unit sales of light vehicles bounded back last month. The 12.0% m/m gain to a 17.30M selling rate did not, however, fully recoup the 13.4% decline in June. Consensus expectations had been for sales of 16.7M. The three month moving [...]
Unit sales of light vehicles bounded back last month. The 12.0% m/m gain to a 17.30M selling rate did not, however, fully recoup the 13.4% decline in June. Consensus expectations had been for sales of 16.7M.
The three month moving average of light vehicle sales improved to 16.86M, up 5.4% versus a low early last year. Pricing has firmed somewhat with that improvement. The CPI for new vehicles has risen at a 0.9% rate during the last three months versus a 4.5% rate of decline in early 2003.
Improved sales of light trucks led last month's rebound with a 17.3% m/m rise which recovered about all of the prior month's steep decline. Auto sales also rose but by a lesser 5.7% m/m which gained back about half of the June skid.
The strength in truck sales raised sales of domestic light vehicles by 15.6% to 14.02M (+2.5% y/y). Imported vehicle sales fell 1.0% m/m, the third decline in the last four months. (US sales of light trucks totaled 7.84M last year while imported truck sales totaled 1.20M.)
Imports' share of the US market for new vehicles in July dropped to 19.0% versus 19.7% last year.
| Light Vehicle Sales (SAAR, Mil.Units) | July | June | Y/Y | 2003 | 2002 | 2001 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | 17.30 | 15.44 | 2.0% | 16.69 | 16.81 | 17.26 |
| Autos | 7.48 | 7.08 | -1.9% | 7.63 | 8.07 | 8.48 |
| Trucks | 9.81 | 8.37 | 5.3% | 9.06 | 8.74 | 8.78 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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