Global| Oct 29 2008Japan’s Industrial Output Recoups Some of Loss
Summary
Japan’s IP fell sharply by 3.5% in August, but it has made a substantial rebound in September. Still the trends for IP all are lower, as the sequential growth rates in the table below show. The rebounds by sector in September are only [...]
Japan’s IP fell sharply by 3.5% in August, but it has made a substantial rebound in September. Still the trends for IP all are lower, as the sequential growth rates in the table below show. The rebounds by sector in September are only about one-third of the drop made in August.
Year-over-year, Japan’s IP is still rising at a 2.7% pace. Consumer goods output is up by a strong 3.9% while investment goods output is up by 0.5% at an annual rate. The investment goods side is slowing down faster than the consumer goods side.
That trend is in place for the quarter as well. With the September figures just in to complete the quarter, Q3 reveals that overall IP is falling at a 5% pace in MFG. Investment goods output is dropping at a sizeable 13.2% pace while the output of consumer goods is still up at a 4.1% pace. Since consumers are showing weakness around the world in terms of lower confidence and reduced spending and since Japan is a strong exporter of consumer goods this sector is due to get hit much harder.
| Japan Industrial Production Trends | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| m/m % | Saar % | Yr/Yr | Qtr-to-Date | |||||
| seas adjusted | Sep-08 | Aug-08 | Jul-08 | 3-mo | 6-mo | 12-mo | Yr-Ago | % AR |
| Mining & Mfg | 1.2% | -3.5% | 1.3% | -4.1% | -1.3% | -1.9% | 2.7% | -4.8% |
| Total Industry | 1.1% | -3.6% | 1.5% | -4.1% | -1.3% | -2.1% | 3.0% | -4.5% |
| MFG | 1.1% | -3.5% | 1.2% | -4.8% | -1.7% | -2.1% | 2.8% | -5.0% |
| Textiles | -1.4% | -0.2% | -2.9% | -16.6% | -13.7% | -10.6% | -6.8% | -16.2% |
| T-port | 4.4% | -9.8% | 4.0% | -7.9% | -1.2% | -1.3% | 10.4% | -7.4% |
| Product Group | ||||||||
| Consumer Goods | 0.9% | -3.3% | 3.6% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 0.6% | 3.9% | 4.1% |
| Intermediate Goods | 0.5% | -2.3% | -0.2% | -7.8% | -3.6% | -1.8% | 3.4% | -5.6% |
| Investment Goods | 4.7% | -5.2% | -0.5% | -5.1% | -2.4% | -4.9% | 0.5% | -13.2% |
| Mining | -4.4% | 1.6% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 2.5% | -1.4% | 1.8% | 12.4% |
| Electricity & Gas | 2.0% | -7.6% | 6.3% | 0.4% | -0.8% | -3.9% | 8.8% | -1.8% |
Robert Brusca
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Robert A. Brusca is Chief Economist of Fact and Opinion Economics, a consulting firm he founded in Manhattan. He has been an economist on Wall Street for over 25 years. He has visited central banking and large institutional clients in over 30 countries in his career as an economist. Mr. Brusca was a Divisional Research Chief at the Federal Reserve Bank of NY (Chief of the International Financial markets Division), a Fed Watcher at Irving Trust and Chief Economist at Nikko Securities International. He is widely quoted and appears in various media. Mr. Brusca holds an MA and Ph.D. in economics from Michigan State University and a BA in Economics from the University of Michigan. His research pursues his strong interests in non aligned policy economics as well as international economics. FAO Economics’ research targets investors to assist them in making better investment decisions in stocks, bonds and in a variety of international assets. The company does not manage money and has no conflicts in giving economic advice.
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