Global| Oct 01 2008Japan Tankan is Tankin'
Summary
Japan’s tankan survey is very weak and showing a continuing slide across the various size-class of respondents as well as across industries. It is the LARGE company module of this survey that tends to get the headlines. But the survey [...]
Japan’s tankan survey is very weak and showing a continuing
slide across the various size-class of respondents as well as across
industries. It is the LARGE company module of this survey that tends to
get the headlines. But the survey itself is rife with weakness even
outside of the big-company survey.
The Large company survey shows manufacturing, nonmanufaturing and the total industry indices at their range lows since early 2004. Large company industry readings all are at sample period lows except for construction and personal services (each in the lower 35% of their respective ranges) and for Restaurants & Hotels that are still very weak in the bottom 2.6% of their range.
The current period manufacturing index has an outright negative reading of -3. For nonmanufacturing the reading is a +1. The total industry reading is 0.
The outlook responses are at sample period lows for all sized classes of companies. In short it is a very weak Tankan that is both weak overall and across the board. Weakness is taking no prisoners.
| Tankan Results Large Enterprises | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Readings | Averages | PERCENTILES | |||||
| Q3-08 | Q2-08 | Q1-08 | Q4-07 | 1-Y Avg | Since Q3'03 | Since Q1'04 | |
| MFG | -3.0 | 5.0 | 11.0 | 19.0 | 1.0 | 17.8 | 0.0% |
| NonMFG | 1.0 | 10.0 | 12.0 | 16.0 | 5.5 | 16.4 | 0.0% |
| Total Industry | 0.0 | 7.0 | 12.0 | 17.0 | 3.5 | 17.1 | 0.0% |
| Construction | -7.0 | -1.0 | -9.0 | -2.0 | -4.0 | -1.4 | 35.3% |
| Real Estate | 5.0 | 22.0 | 21.0 | 37.0 | 13.5 | 36.1 | 0.0% |
| Wholesale | 11.0 | 12.0 | 14.0 | 12.0 | 11.5 | 18.6 | 0.0% |
| Retail | -5.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 4.0 | -2.5 | 8.1 | 0.0% |
| Transportation | 6.0 | 16.0 | 17.0 | 14.0 | 11.0 | 16.8 | 0.0% |
| Services 4 Biz | 4.0 | 20.0 | 22.0 | 31.0 | 12.0 | 24.5 | 0.0% |
| Personal Service | 6.0 | 10.0 | 13.0 | 19.0 | 8.0 | 12.2 | 35.0% |
| Restaurants & Hotels | -13.0 | -14.0 | -3.0 | 12.0 | -13.5 | 7.6 | 2.6% |
| Forecast | |||||||
| Q4-08 | Q3-08 | Q2-08 | Q1-08 | 1-Y Avg | Since Q3'03 | Since Q1'04 | |
| MFG-Outlook | -4.0 | 4.0 | 7.0 | 15.0 | 5.5 | 16.0 | 0.0% |
| NonMFG-Outlook | -1.0 | 8.0 | 13.0 | 15.0 | 8.8 | 16.4 | 0.0% |
| All Industry-Outlook | -2.0 | 6.0 | 10.0 | 16.0 | 7.5 | 16.1 | 0.0% |
| Tankan Results Medium Enterprises | |||||||
| Q3-08 | Q2-08 | Q1-08 | 1-Y Avg | 1-Y Avg | Since Q3'03 | Since Q1'04 | |
| MFG | -8.0 | -2.0 | 5.0 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 8.8 | 0.0% |
| NonMFG | -12.0 | -5.0 | -3.0 | -4.5 | -4.5 | 1.2 | 0.0% |
| Forecast | |||||||
| Q4-08 | Q3-08 | Q2-08 | Q1-08 | 1-Y Avg | Since Q3'03 | Since Q1'04 | |
| MFG-Outlook | -12.0 | -5.0 | -1.0 | 6.0 | -3.0 | 6.4 | 0.0% |
| NonMFG-Outlook | -17.0 | -10.0 | -6.0 | -3.0 | -9.0 | 0.1 | 0.0% |
| All Industry-Outlook | -15.0 | -9.0 | -4.0 | 0.0 | -7.0 | 2.6 | 0.0% |
| Tankan Results Small Enterprises | |||||||
| Q4-08 | Q3-08 | Q2-08 | Q1-08 | 1-Y Avg | Since Q3'03 | Since Q1'04 | |
| MFG | -17.0 | -10.0 | -6.0 | -13.5 | -13.5 | 1.8 | 0.0% |
| NonMFG | -24.0 | -20.0 | -15.0 | -22.0 | -22.0 | -10.8 | 0.0% |
| Total Industry | -24.0 | -20.0 | -15.0 | -22.0 | -22.0 | -10.8 | 0.0% |
| Forecast | |||||||
| Q4-08 | Q3-08 | Q2-08 | Q1-08 | 1-Y Avg | Since Q3'03 | Since Q1'04 | |
| MFG-Outlook | -25.0 | -15.0 | -9.0 | -3.0 | -13.0 | 0.1 | 0.0% |
| NonMFG-Outlook | -31.0 | -27.0 | -21.0 | -17.0 | -24.0 | -14.1 | 0.0% |
| All Industry-Outlook | -29.0 | -22.0 | -17.0 | -12.0 | -20.0 | -8.9 | 0.0% |
Robert Brusca
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Robert A. Brusca is Chief Economist of Fact and Opinion Economics, a consulting firm he founded in Manhattan. He has been an economist on Wall Street for over 25 years. He has visited central banking and large institutional clients in over 30 countries in his career as an economist. Mr. Brusca was a Divisional Research Chief at the Federal Reserve Bank of NY (Chief of the International Financial markets Division), a Fed Watcher at Irving Trust and Chief Economist at Nikko Securities International. He is widely quoted and appears in various media. Mr. Brusca holds an MA and Ph.D. in economics from Michigan State University and a BA in Economics from the University of Michigan. His research pursues his strong interests in non aligned policy economics as well as international economics. FAO Economics’ research targets investors to assist them in making better investment decisions in stocks, bonds and in a variety of international assets. The company does not manage money and has no conflicts in giving economic advice.
More Economy in Brief
