Global| May 30 2008Japan Industrial Sector in Steep Slowdown…or Worse
Summary
Industrial output is slowing sharply in Japan and across most sectors. Consumer goods and intermediate goods are leading the way down. Very sharp declines have come in textiles and transportation goods in the past two months. [...]
Industrial output is slowing sharply in Japan and across most sectors. Consumer goods and intermediate goods are leading the way down. Very sharp declines have come in textiles and transportation goods in the past two months. Intermediate goods, in addition to consumer goods, find weak trends in place over two months as well. Even investment goods that have been relatively stronger on a worldwide basis are showing some softness as the output of investment goods fell in March in Japan and managed only a weak rebound in April.
In the new quarter-to-date all sectors and breakdowns show steep declines except for mining. Japan like German is getting off to a weak start in 2008-Q2. For Germany it is weak retail sales, for Japan it’s weakness in output.
| Japan Industrial Production Trends | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| m/m % | Saar % | Yr/Yr | Qtr-2-Date | |||||
| seasonally adjusted | Apr-08 | Mar-08 | Feb-08 | 3-mo | 6-mo | 12-mo | Yr-Ago | % AR |
| Mining & Manufacturing | -0.3% | -3.4% | 1.6% | -8.2% | -6.8% | 0.6% | 1.1% | -11.6% |
| Total Industry | -0.1% | -3.8% | 2.0% | -7.5% | -5.6% | 0.6% | 1.1% | -11.4% |
| Manufacturing | -0.4% | -3.3% | 1.6% | -8.2% | -6.8% | 0.6% | 1.0% | -11.7% |
| Textiles | -1.6% | -1.3% | -0.2% | -11.8% | -10.4% | -7.1% | -5.0% | -14.3% |
| Transportation | -2.2% | -5.6% | 1.3% | -23.6% | -11.0% | 4.2% | 0.7% | -29.0% |
| Product Group | ||||||||
| Consumer Goods | -1.3% | -5.2% | 2.7% | -14.7% | -9.0% | 0.1% | -1.9% | -21.4% |
| Intermediate Goods | -0.7% | -1.3% | 1.0% | -4.3% | -5.3% | 2.1% | 3.1% | -7.5% |
| Investment Goods | 0.5% | -4.3% | 1.1% | -10.8% | -7.2% | -2.5% | 0.2% | -11.9% |
| Mining | 4.2% | 1.4% | 2.3% | 36.4% | -1.3% | 0.6% | 5.9% | 41.3% |
| Electricity & Gas | 3.8% | -11.4% | 9.7% | 3.7% | 3.5% | -0.2% | 4.2% | -8.0% |
Robert Brusca
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Robert A. Brusca is Chief Economist of Fact and Opinion Economics, a consulting firm he founded in Manhattan. He has been an economist on Wall Street for over 25 years. He has visited central banking and large institutional clients in over 30 countries in his career as an economist. Mr. Brusca was a Divisional Research Chief at the Federal Reserve Bank of NY (Chief of the International Financial markets Division), a Fed Watcher at Irving Trust and Chief Economist at Nikko Securities International. He is widely quoted and appears in various media. Mr. Brusca holds an MA and Ph.D. in economics from Michigan State University and a BA in Economics from the University of Michigan. His research pursues his strong interests in non aligned policy economics as well as international economics. FAO Economics’ research targets investors to assist them in making better investment decisions in stocks, bonds and in a variety of international assets. The company does not manage money and has no conflicts in giving economic advice.
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